PurposePopulation-based studies on violent crime and background factors may provide an understanding of the relationships between susceptibility factors and crime. We aimed to determine the distribution of violent crime convictions in the Swedish population 1973–2004 and to identify criminal, academic, parental, and psychiatric risk factors for persistence in violent crime.MethodThe nationwide multi-generation register was used with many other linked nationwide registers to select participants. All individuals born in 1958–1980 (2,393,765 individuals) were included. Persistent violent offenders (those with a lifetime history of three or more violent crime convictions) were compared with individuals having one or two such convictions, and to matched non-offenders. Independent variables were gender, age of first conviction for a violent crime, nonviolent crime convictions, and diagnoses for major mental disorders, personality disorders, and substance use disorders.ResultsA total of 93,642 individuals (3.9 %) had at least one violent conviction. The distribution of convictions was highly skewed; 24,342 persistent violent offenders (1.0 % of the total population) accounted for 63.2 % of all convictions. Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3).ConclusionsThe majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality.

Early psychosocial adversities and maladjustment, such as childhood maltreatment and school adjustment problems, have been linked to an increased risk of aggressive antisocial behaviors. Yet, clinical studies of subjects at the highest risk of persistence in such behaviors are rare, especially during the life-changing transition years of emerging adulthood. This study describes early predictors of aggressive antisocial behaviors in a large, nationally representative cohort of Swedish, male violent offenders in emerging adulthood (age range = 18-25 years; N = 270). First, data on psychosocial background characteristics and aggressive antisocial behaviors (including age at onset) are provided. Second, early predictors of aggressive antisocial behaviors are tested in bivariate and multivariate interactive models. The offenders demonstrated a diversity of early onset adversities and disruptive behaviors, in line with established risk factors for subsequent criminality and adverse outcomes in a variety of life domains. Severe school adjustment problems, especially bullying others and early onset truancy, were important and interrelated predictors of aggressive antisocial behaviors over the lifetime, whereas childhood adversities such as parental substance or alcohol abuse and repeated exposure to violence at home during childhood were interrelated predictors of aggressive antisocial behaviors, albeit with less statistical importance. The findings stress the importance of early identification of individuals in the risk zone of developing severe and persistent aggressive antisocial behaviors and of early preventive interventions directed toward families with high-risk profiles. The findings also provide initial guidelines on which psychosocial background risk factors that need to be considered first-hand in early interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record

The reliability and validity of the self-report questionnaire How I Think (HIT), designed to assess self-serving cognitive distortions related to antisocial behavior, was tested among Swedish offender and nonoffender adults and adolescents ( N = 364). The results showed self-serving distortions to be more common among offenders and to predict self-reported antisocial behavior when tested among adults. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed, in contrast to earlier findings, that the underlying structure of the HIT was best explained by a three-factor solution with one major cognitive factor, referred to as “criminal mind.” It was concluded that the HIT, after further examination of its structural and divergent validity, could be used as a measure of criminal thinking in adults as well as in adolescents.

BackgroundIn this prospective study, mentally disordered perpetrators of severe violent and/or sexual crimes were followed through official registers for 59 (range 8 to 73) months. The relapse rate in criminality was assessed, compared between offenders sentenced to prison versus forensic psychiatric care, and the predictive ability of various risk factors (criminological, clinical, and of structured assessment instruments) was investigated.MethodOne hundred perpetrators were consecutively assessed between 1998 and 2001 by a clinical battery of established instruments covering DSM-IV diagnoses, psychosocial background factors, and structured assessment instruments (HCR-20, PCL-R, and life-time aggression (LHA)). Follow-up data was collected from official registers for: (i) recidivistic crimes, (ii) crimes during ongoing sanction.ResultsTwenty subjects relapsed in violent criminality during ongoing sanctions (n = 6) or after discharge/parole (n = 14). Individuals in forensic psychiatric care spent significantly more time at liberty after discharge compared to those in prison, but showed significantly fewer relapses. Criminological (age at first conviction), and clinical (conduct disorder and substance abuse/dependence) risk factors, as well as scores on structured assessment instruments, were moderately associated with violent recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that the predictive ability of criminological risk factors versus clinical risk factors combined with scores from assessment instruments was comparable, with each set of variables managing to correctly classify about 80% of all individuals, but the only predictors that remained significant in multiple models were criminological (age at first conviction, and a history of substance abuse among primary relatives).ConclusionsOnly one in five relapsed into serious criminality, with significantly more relapses among subjects sentenced to prison as compared to forensic psychiatric care. Criminological risk factors tended to be the best predictors of violent relapses, while few synergies were seen when the risk factors were combined. Overall, the predictive validity of common risk factors for violent criminality was rather weak.

BackgroundThe psychiatric health burden of prisoners is substantial. However, there is a lack of high-quality studies of psychiatric disorders among young adults with a high risk of reoffending.AimsTo investigate the lifetime prevalence of psychiatric disorders and use of mental health services among young male violent offenders and the impact of childhood-onset conduct disorder (COCD).MethodA nationally representative cohort (n = 270, age 18–25) of male offenders was followed back in medical records and clinically assessed by gold standard methods. Lifetime prevalences are presented together with odds ratios (ORs) as risk estimates in relation to COCD.ResultsPrevious use of psychiatric services among the participants was high but their lifetime psychiatric morbidity was even higher, with 93% meeting criteria for at least one Axis I disorder. The COCD group was overrepresented in most clinical categories and carried five times higher odds (OR = 5.1, 95% CI 2.0–12.8) of a psychotic disorder, three times higher odds (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.2–8.5) of a substance use disorder and two times higher odds of a mood disorder (OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.0) or anxiety disorder (OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.5).ConclusionsThe mental health burden is substantial among young violent offenders, and COCD is an important indicator of future mental health problems which must be a priority for public health efforts.Declaration of interestNone.Copyright and usage© The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license.

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One of the primary objectives in forensic psychiatry, distinguishing it from other psychiatric disciplines, is risk management. Assessments of the risk of criminal recidivism are performed on a routine basis, as a baseline for risk management for populations involved in the criminal justice system. However, the risk assessment tools available to clinical practice are limited in their ability to predict recidivism. Recently, the prospect of incorporating neuroimaging data to improve the prediction of criminal behavior has received increased attention. In this study we investigated the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism by studying whether the inclusion of resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements leads to an incremental increase in predictive performance over traditional risk factors. A subsample ( N = 44) from a cohort of forensic psychiatric patients who underwent single-photon emission computed tomography neuroimaging and clinical psychiatric assessment during their court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigation were included in a long-term (ten year average time at risk) follow-up. A Baseline model with eight empirically established risk factors, and an Extended model which also included resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements from eight brain regions were estimated using random forest classification and compared using several predictive performance metrics. Including neuroimaging data in the Extended model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from .69 to .81, increased accuracy from .64 to .82 and increased the scaled Brier score from .08 to .25, supporting the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients. Although our results hint at potential benefits in the domain of risk assessment, several limitations and ethical challenges are discussed. Further studies with larger, carefully characterized clinical samples utilizing higher-resolution neuroimaging techniques are warranted.