This study describes the prevalence of adverse events and length of stay in forensic psychiatric patients with and without a restriction order. Detailed clinical and administrative information from medical records and written court decisions was gathered retrospectively from admission until discharge for a Swedish population-based, consecutive cohort of forensic psychiatric patients (n=125). The median length of stay for the whole cohort was 951 days, but patients with a restriction order stayed in hospital almost five times as long as patients without. Restriction orders were related to convictions for violent crime, but not for any other differences in demographic or clinical variables. The majority of the patients (60%) were involved in adverse events (violence, threats, substance abuse, or absconding) at some time during their treatment. Patients with restriction orders were overrepresented in violent and threat events. Previous contact with child and adolescence psychiatric services, current violent index crime, psychotic disorders, a history of substance, and absconding during treatment predicted longer length of stay. Being a parent, high current Global Assessment of Functioning scores, and mood disorders were all significantly related to earlier discharge. In a stepwise Cox regression analysis current violent index crime and absconding remained risk factors for a longer hospital stay, while a diagnosis of mood disorder was significantly related to a shorter length of stay.

One of the primary objectives in forensic psychiatry, distinguishing it from other psychiatric disciplines, is risk management. Assessments of the risk of criminal recidivism are performed on a routine basis, as a baseline for risk management for populations involved in the criminal justice system. However, the risk assessment tools available to clinical practice are limited in their ability to predict recidivism. Recently, the prospect of incorporating neuroimaging data to improve the prediction of criminal behavior has received increased attention. In this study we investigated the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism by studying whether the inclusion of resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements leads to an incremental increase in predictive performance over traditional risk factors. A subsample ( N = 44) from a cohort of forensic psychiatric patients who underwent single-photon emission computed tomography neuroimaging and clinical psychiatric assessment during their court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigation were included in a long-term (ten year average time at risk) follow-up. A Baseline model with eight empirically established risk factors, and an Extended model which also included resting-state regional cerebral blood flow measurements from eight brain regions were estimated using random forest classification and compared using several predictive performance metrics. Including neuroimaging data in the Extended model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from .69 to .81, increased accuracy from .64 to .82 and increased the scaled Brier score from .08 to .25, supporting the feasibility of including neuroimaging data in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients. Although our results hint at potential benefits in the domain of risk assessment, several limitations and ethical challenges are discussed. Further studies with larger, carefully characterized clinical samples utilizing higher-resolution neuroimaging techniques are warranted.

Signs of childhood adversities together with early debut in criminality appeared as important risk factors for general and violent recidivism. Forensic psychiatric treatment combined with a restriction order was demonstrated as a protective factor against recidivism, suggesting that the risk of recidivism is strongly related to the level of supervision. Although the low number of recidivism cases is highly desirable, it unfortunately reduces the power of the analyses in this paper.

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Background: Treatment of mentally disordered offenders (MDOs) is challenging as their behavior and clinical conditions can be traced to a complex constellation of major mental disorders, substance use and antisocial lifestyle. Finding subgroups of these offenders, which could guide treatment and risk assessment, is desirable. There are few long-term, prospective studies of risk factors for persistent criminal behavior among MDOs.Aims: The aims are (1) to provide a map of lifetime criminality in MDOs, (2) to identify subgroups of offenders, and (3), if such clusters exist, to test whether they differ in lifetime criminality and patterns of negative events during in-patient treatment.Methods: Background data on all offenders from the Malmö University Hospital catchment area sentenced to forensic psychiatric in-patient treatment 1999–2005 (n = 125) was collected. Data on negative events during treatment (violence, threats, absconding and substance use) from date of admittance until discharge or until June 30, 2008 was gathered. Court decisions for 118 of the cohort-individuals were collected from the 1st of January 1973 until December 31, 2013. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify subgroups and MANOVA-analysis to examine differences between these clusters on lifetime criminality variables and negative events. A MANCOVA was used to control for time in treatment.Results: The cohort was sentenced to a total of 3,380 crimes (944 violent) during the study period. Median age at first crime was 20 years (range 15–72), and at first violent crime 27 years (range 15–72). A subgroup (n = 26) was characterized by childhood adversities, neurodevelopmental disorders and later substance use disorders and was more often associated with substance-related crimes, financial crimes and lower age at first crime. During treatment, this cluster showed higher rates of substance use and threats. When controlling for treatment time, no differences in negative events were found.Conclusions: This study replicated findings from prison populations of the existence of a more criminally persistent phenotype characterized by early-onset neurodevelopmental and behavior disorders, childhood adversities and later substance use disorders. We did not find this cluster of variables to be related to negative events during inpatient treatment when controlling for length of stay.