This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21 st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (H S), mean wave period (T m), and mean wave direction (θ m) computed over time-slices 1979-2004 and 2081-2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative windwave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.
We present four 140-year wind-wave climate simulations (1961-2100) forced with surface wind speed and sea ice concentration from two CMIP6 GCMs under two different climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. A global three-grid system is implemented in WAVEWATCH III® to simulate the wave-ice interactions in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The models perform well in comparison with global satellite altimeter and in-situ buoys climatology. The comparison with traditional trend analyses demonstrates the present GCM-forced wave models’ ability to reproduce the main historical climate signals. The long-term datasets allow a comprehensive description of the 20th and 21st century wave climate and yield statistically robust trends. Analysis of the latest IPCC ocean climatic regions highlights four regions where changes in wave climate are projected to be most significant: the Arctic, the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Southern Ocean. The main driver of offshore wave climate change is the wind, except for the Arctic where the significant sea ice retreat causes a sharp increase in the projected wave heights. Distinct changes in the wave period and the wave direction are found in the Southern Hemisphere, where the poleward shift of the Southern Ocean westerlies causes an increase in the wave period of up to 5% and a counter-clockwise change in wave direction of up to 5°. The new CMIP6 forced wave models improve in performance compared to previous CMIP5 forced wave models, and will ultimately contribute to a new CMIP6 wind-wave climate model ensemble, crucial for coastal adaptation strategies and the design of future marine offshore structures and operations.
The generation and evolution of ocean waves by wind is one of the most complex phenomena in geophysics, and is of great practical significance. Predictive capabilities of respective wave models, however, are impaired by lack of field in situ observations, particularly in extreme Metocean conditions. The paper outlines and highlights important gaps in understanding the Metocean processes and suggests a major observational program in the Southern Ocean. This large, but poorly investigated part of the World Ocean is home to extreme weather around the year. The observational network would include distributed system of buoys (drifting and stationary) and autonomous surface vehicles (ASV), intended for measurements of waves and air-sea fluxes in the Southern Ocean. It would help to resolve the issues of limiting fetches, extreme Extra-Tropical cyclones, swell propagation and attenuation, wave-current interactions, and address the topics of wave-induced dispersal of floating objects, wave-ice interactions in the Marginal Ice Zone, Metocean climatology and its connection with the global climate.
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