140 Years of Global Ocean Wind-Wave Climate Derived from CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 and EC-Earth3 GCMs: Global Trends, Regional Changes, and Future Projections

Meucci, Alberto; Young, Ian R.; Hemer, Mark; Trenham, Claire; Watterson, I. G.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0929.1

Cited by 25 publications

(50 citation statements)

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“…Watterson (2015) has proposed skill scores of four wind‐related variables to evaluate the performance of GCMs. The evaluations of 42 CMIP6 GCMs (Meucci et al., 2022) indicate that the EC3G (ranked 2nd) is clearly a high performing GCM in simulating global wind‐related variables in comparison to ERA5 reanalysis. AC2G (ranked 15th) does not perform as highly on this global basis, but as it is an Australian GCM, it was developed to perform well for the Australia region.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, as undertaken in this study, it is useful to evaluate the potential impacts of different GCMs on the regional future projected wave climate, by comparing two RWCMs. In this study, the EC3R and AC2R were nested within a global WW3 model forced with the EC3G and AC2G, respectively (Meucci et al., 2022). Watterson (2015) has proposed skill scores of four wind‐related variables to evaluate the performance of GCMs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future T p of the RWCMs is projected to increase by ∼0.1 s under SSP126 scenario (Figures 8b and 8e) and ∼0.3 s under SSP585 scenario (Figures 8k and 8n), respectively. These increases are a result of a projected increase in swell (Figure S1 in Supporting Information ), which is associated with the projected increase in Southern Ocean wave conditions for the EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 global wave climate models (Meucci et al., 2022). These results are also consistent with previous results of projected increases in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g., Tasmania, Ecuador and Chile) wave spectra, which relate to the intensification of Southern Ocean swell (Lobeto et al., 2021b).…”

Section: Consensus and Discrepancies In Future Projected Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… (a) Water depth and (b) unstructured grid of the present research domain (J. Liu, Meucci, Liu, et al., 2022). The blue line of the insert in (a) represents wave spectra boundary data provided by global wave climate model forced with global circulation models (Meucci et al., 2022). NSW, New South Wales; VIC, Victoria; TAS, Tasmania; BS, Bass Strait; FI, Flinders Island; CBI, Cape Barren Island.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected 21st Century Wind‐Wave Climate of Bass Strait and South‐East Australia: Comparison of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 Climate Model Forcing

2023

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This study analyses the past and future wave climate of Bass Strait and south‐east Australia by comparing two high‐resolution regional wave climate models (RWCMs), respectively forced by the surface wind speed of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 global circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). The two RWCMs are verified against long‐term buoy and satellite observations as well as hindcast model data. The comparison with long‐term satellite altimeter observations shows good agreement between the long‐term model climate and the observations. Both RWCMs project a future increase in swell, approaching the coast of Tasmania and mainland Australia, generated from distant storms in the Southern Ocean. However, different projected wave height spatial distributions are found in the coastal regions, affected by local synoptic weather events and by the coarse resolution of the GCMs winds. We also show that the long‐term wave climate in the domain is impacted by the Southern Annular Mode. As low‐pressure systems are projected to move southward, especially in the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, the swells approaching south‐east Australia are projected to be longer and more energetic in the future. The combination of more energetic swell systems and a counterclockwise rotation in peak wave direction, projected by both RWCMs, may influence the coastal equilibrium, impacting critical coastal locations.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Consensus and Discrepancies In Future Projected Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected 21st Century Wind‐Wave Climate of Bass Strait and South‐East Australia: Comparison of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 Climate Model Forcing

2023

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“…In this study, a 40‐year (1981–2020) global wave hindcast was used to investigate the wave climate trends and the modulation of climate variability (ENSO, AAO, AO, PDO, AMO, and IOD) on ocean waves in the DJF and JJA seasons. The advantage of using a hindcast is that it removes the impact of the ERA5 wave height assimilation on the wave climate trends (Meucci et al., 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Multiple Approaches to Study the Modulation of Ocean Waves Due To Climate Variability

Liu,

Meucci,

Young

2023

JGR Oceans

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Using multiple approaches, the modulation of climate variability on global ocean waves from 1981 to 2020 is investigated based on a wave hindcast model forced by ERA5 winds. These climate variabilities include: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Linear regression and composite analysis results indicate that El Niño‐induced low‐pressure systems in December‐January‐February (DJF) generate energetic waves in the Pacific Ocean. Positive AAO events are associated with the southward movement of westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere and thus produce long‐period Southern Ocean swell that impacts the South Pacific Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive AO is associated with strengthening winds which generate larger waves around the Icelandic region. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) approach was further undertaken to study interannual variability of significant wave height (Hs) anomalies. In DJF, mode 1 marks the impacts of ENSO and PDO on the Pacific Ocean and AO in the North Atlantic Ocean. Mode 2 is controlled by AO, which is characterized by a dipole pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean. Mode 3 describes the AAO footprints in the Southern Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. In June‐July‐August (JJA), the leading mode is influenced by AAO and AMO. Mode 2 indicates the importance of ENSO and PDO which exhibit opposite patterns in the Pacific Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. Finally, a wavelet coherence analysis is conducted on the principal components and climate indexes, which shows their respective evolutions over the time‐frequency domain.

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Projected wave climate of Bass Strait and south-east Australia by the end of the twenty-first century

2022

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A high-resolution third-generation wave model based on unstructured grids, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), was used to study the projected future wave climate of Bass Strait and south-east Australia under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The wave model, forced with winds from the Australian ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model, shows good agreement with coastal long-term buoy observations and an independent WW3 hindcast dataset over the historical period 1985–2014. The projected mean significant wave height ($$H_{s}$$ H s ) for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) shows a robust increase for the majority of the domain, but a decrease in nearshore regions, mainly due to projected decreases in local wind speed. The increase in $$H_{s}$$ H s for SSP1-2.6 is relatively small. Seasonal variations show that $$H_{s}$$ H s (SSP5-8.5) is primarily influenced by Southern Ocean swell in spring and winter and local winds prevail in summer and autumn. Hs percentiles show a stronger increase in extreme wave climate for SSP5-8.5 than for SSP1-2.6. Extreme value $$H_{s}$$ H s for SSP1-2.6 shows a projected decrease in western regions of the domain and an increase in the east. Extreme value $$H_{s}$$ H s for SSP5-8.5 shows a decrease in the nearshore areas of Victoria. This study shows that projected wave climate changes in south-east Australia may have potential implications for Tasmanian and Victorian coastline stability.

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140 Years of Global Ocean Wind-Wave Climate Derived from CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 and EC-Earth3 GCMs: Global Trends, Regional Changes, and Future Projections

Cited by 25 publications

References 0 publications

Projected 21st Century Wind‐Wave Climate of Bass Strait and South‐East Australia: Comparison of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 Climate Model Forcing

Projected 21st Century Wind‐Wave Climate of Bass Strait and South‐East Australia: Comparison of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 Climate Model Forcing

A Comparison of Multiple Approaches to Study the Modulation of Ocean Waves Due To Climate Variability

Projected wave climate of Bass Strait and south-east Australia by the end of the twenty-first century

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