Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

The distribution of a species over space is of central interest in ecology, but species occurrence does not provide all of the information needed to characterize either the well-being of a population or the suitability of occupied habitat. Recent methodological development has focused on drawing inferences about species occurrence in the face of imperfect detection. Here we extend those methods by characterizing occupied locations by some additional state variable (e.g., as producing young or not). Our modeling approach deals with both detection probabilities<1 and uncertainty in state classification. We then use the approach with occupancy and reproductive rate data from California Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) collected in the central Sierra Nevada during the breeding season of 2004 to illustrate the utility of the modeling approach. Estimates of owl reproductive rate were larger than naïve estimates, indicating the importance of appropriately accounting for uncertainty in detection and state classification.

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Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision‐making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision‐making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Management of many North American forests is challenged by the need to balance the potentially competing objectives of reducing risks posed by high‐severity wildfires and protecting threatened species. In the Sierra Nevada, California, concern about high‐severity fires has increased in recent decades but uncertainty exists over the effects of fuel‐reduction treatments on species associated with older forests, such as the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). Here, we assessed the effects of forest conditions, fuel reductions, and wildfire on a declining population of Spotted Owls in the central Sierra Nevada using 20 years of demographic data collected at 74 Spotted Owl territories. Adult survival and territory colonization probabilities were relatively high, while territory extinction probability was relatively low, especially in territories that had relatively large amounts of high canopy cover (≥70%) forest. Reproduction was negatively associated with the area of medium‐intensity timber harvests characteristic of proposed fuel treatments. Our results also suggested that the amount of edge between older forests and shrub/sapling vegetation and increased habitat heterogeneity may positively influence demographic rates of Spotted Owls. Finally, high‐severity fire negatively influenced the probability of territory colonization. Despite correlations between owl demographic rates and several habitat variables, life stage simulation (sensitivity) analyses indicated that the amount of forest with high canopy cover was the primary driver of population growth and equilibrium occupancy at the scale of individual territories. Greater than 90% of medium‐intensity harvests converted high‐canopy‐cover forests into lower‐canopy‐cover vegetation classes, suggesting that landscape‐scale fuel treatments in such stands could have short‐term negative impacts on populations of California Spotted Owls. Moreover, high‐canopy‐cover forests declined by an average of 7.4% across territories during our study, suggesting that habitat loss could have contributed to declines in abundance and territory occupancy. We recommend that managers consider the existing amount and spatial distribution of high‐canopy forest before implementing fuel treatments within an owl territory, and that treatments be accompanied by a rigorous monitoring program.

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta‐analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southem Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta‐analysis) using model selection or model‐averaging based on maximum‐likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta‐analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model‐averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ± 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ± 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second‐year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta‐analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate‐year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even‐numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ± 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ± 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ± 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ± 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta‐analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second‐year subadults, and then by first‐year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to...

Understanding population dynamics is of great interest in many different contexts. Traditionally, population dynamics have often been considered in terms of individual-based demographic parameters (e.g., abundance, survival, and reproductive rates), estimation of which generally requires information from marked individuals. Alternatively, in some situations, it may be appropriate to consider population dynamics at a landscape level where the focus is shifted from numbers of individuals to the status of the population at places on the landscape. One consequence of doing so is that information from marked individuals is no longer required. Recently developed methods allow the estimation of landscape-level population vital rates in the realistic situation where the current status of the population might be misclassified via field methods (e.g., because of imperfect detection). Here, we consider the case of the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) at the Eldorado study area in central Sierra Nevada, California, USA, where interest is in the occupancy rate of potential nesting territories, and in whether owls in an occupied territory successfully reproduced each year during 1997-2004. We analyzed the data using multistate occupancy models and found no evidence of annual variation in dynamic occupancy probabilities. There was strong evidence of annual variation in successful reproduction, with the pattern of variation being different depending on whether there was successful reproduction in the territory in the previous year. Of the three environmental variables considered, the Southern Oscillation Index appeared to be most important and explained some of the annual variation in reproduction probabilities.

We studied nest and roost habitat characteristics of Mexican Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis Zucida) in the Tularosa Mountains, New Mexico. Owls selected both nesting and roosting sites in mixed-conifer forests that contained an oak (Quercus sp.) component more frequently than expected by chance. With the exception of one cliff site, no owls were observed using piiion pine (Pinus eduZis)lalligator juniper (Juniperus deppeana) woodlands for nesting or roosting. Owls selected nest and roost sites in forests characterized by mature (dbh > 45.5 cm) trees with high variation in tree heights and canopy closure >75%. Because we found little difference between nest microsites and their surrounding forest patches, the presence of a suitable nest structure may have determined nest-site selection within nest stands. Characteristics that best described nest sites in the Tularosa Mountains were also applicable to Mexican Spotted Owl nest sites in surrounding mountains. Seventy-five percent (n = 28) of nests were in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), and 6 1% (n = 28) of nest structures were on clumps of limbs caused by dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium sp.) infections. Nest trees averaged 163.7 years of age (SD = 44.8) and 60.6 cm in diameter (SD = 22.4).