Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

Nichols, James D.; Koneff, Mark D.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Knutson, Melinda G.; Seamans, Mark E.; Lyons, James E.; Morton, John M.; Jones, Malcolm T; Boomer, G. Scott; Williams, Byron K.

doi:10.1002/jwmg.33

Cited by 127 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Adaptive management is a process for planning and managing in the face of inevitable uncertainty (Nichols et al 2011). Adaptation to changes in climate, land use, and societal goals requires adaptive adjustments that incorporate new information as it becomes available and to respond to emerging conditions, many of which will be unanticipated.…”

Section: Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological reorganization make future conditions uncertain. We used a GIS analysis to assess the vulnerability of 501 reserve units in the National Wildlife Refuge System as a basis for a nationally coordinated response to climate change adaptation. We used measures of climate change exposure (historic rate of temperature change), sensitivity (biome edge and critical habitat for threatened and endangered species), and adaptive capacity (elevation range, latitude range, watershed road density, and watershed protection) to evaluate refuge vulnerability. The vulnerability of individual refuges varied spatially within and among biomes. We suggest that the spatial variability in vulnerability be used to define suites of management approaches that capitalize on local conditions to facilitate adaptation and spread risk across the reserve network. We conceptually define four divergent management strategies to facilitate adaption: refugia, ecosystem maintenance, ''natural'' adaptation, and facilitated transitions. Furthermore, we recognize that adaptation approaches can use historic (i.e., retrospective) and future (prospective) condition as temporal reference points to define management goals.

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Section: Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

et al. 2011

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“…In Canada, climate change may disproportionately affect large-bodied mammals more than smaller ones (Imre and Derbowka 2011). The impacts on wildlife are generally thought to be via changes in plant communities, altered phenology, physiological stresses, changes in disease patterns, and escalating catastrophic weather events, among other factors (Gitay et al 2002;Geyer et al 2011;nichols et al 2011). The Interagency Lynx Biology Team (2013) categorized climate change impacts on lynx as shifts in distribution, changes in periodicity of the Snowshoe hare cycle, reduction in lynx habitat and population size, changes in demographic rates, and changes in predator-prey relationships.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Canada Lynx (<em>Lynx canadensis</em>) of Isle Royale: over-harvest, climate change, and the extirpation of an island population

Licht

Moen

Brown³

et al. 2015

Can Field Nat

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In the 1930s, the Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) was extirpated from Isle Royale, a 535-km 2 island located in western Lake Superior, 22 km from the Ontario and Minnesota shorelines. The first half of the 20th century was a time of change on Isle Royale as Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) disappeared, Coyotes (Canis latrans) briefly appeared, Moose (Alces americanus), Grey wolves (Canis lupus), and Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) became established, and the habitat was altered by fire, logging, and over-browsing. although these changes may have contributed to the demise of the Canada Lynx, our results suggest that over-harvest was a primary cause. assuming a peak carrying capacity of 75 Canada Lynx and harvest rates comparable to those reported from 1890-1935, a population viability analysis indicated that the island population had a 0% chance of surviving 50 years. The analysis also indicated that, even in the absence of harvest, the population had only a 14% chance of persistence for 250 years. however, when 10 Canada Lynx were added to the modeled population every 10th year, the probability of persistence increased to 100%. Our analyses suggest that the island's Canada Lynx population maintained itself by periodic immigration across an ice bridge; therefore, natural recolonization should be possible. however, the probability of ice-bridge formation has declined from 0.8 in the winter of 1958-59 to 0.1 in 2012-13, likely as a result of climate change. The Isle Royale situation exemplifies another impact of climate change and the possible need to augment populations to mitigate the loss of connectivity.

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“…Exemplifying uncertainties due to climate change, inadequate knowledge, and other institutional constraints do provide the basis for adaptive management (Walters 1986;Nichols et al 2011). Drawing on diverse disciplinary perspectives, curtailing the epidemic could entail both anticipatory risk reduction measures as well as crisis management through synergistic efforts in addressing food security and environmental health.…”

Section: Synergies Between Local Food Systems and Environmental Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seafood insecurity, bush meat consumption, and public health emergency in West Africa: Did we miss the early warning signs of an Ebola epidemic?

Khan

Sesay

2015

Maritime Studies

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In this article, we frame issues around food security and the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and discuss the potential contribution of interrelated factors like seafood access, bush meat consumption, and public health concerns with the recent outbreak. Since seafood is a major dietary constituent in the affected countries, we posit that seafood unavailability due to unsustainable fishing practices and global change may increase the demand for bush meat and the risk of exposure to zoonosis such as Ebola through hunting and wildlife interactions. We discuss the potential contribution of these contextual drivers to public health within the wider milieu of changing climate, habitat disruptions, human migration and its implication for adaptive capacity, resilience and environmental governance. We conclude with policy options and research directives in addressing regional food security challenges, maritime policy, and emerging global health concerns.Keywords: Fisheries; Seafood security; Ebola; Wildlife interactions; Public health; Environmental governance; West Africa What has seafood got to do with Ebola?Since the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa almost a year ago, little effort has been directed to understanding the contextual factors and drivers of its emergence and propagation, and how best to address the current crisis and prevent future ones. Most efforts and interventions have been targeted mainly at public health control measures with little attention to the link with food security, regional ecosystem dynamics, and global change. Moreover, this region is comprised of several fragile states and one of the most vulnerable in terms of food security and well-being (Jalloh et al. 2013;Khan and Sei 2015). Seafood is a major part of the diet in the sub-region (Smith et al. 2010), amounting to 70% of animal protein intake in coastal countries like Sierra Leone (FAO 2014). The small-scale sector plays a key and important role in this as it strives to address not only food security and well-being but also broader development issues (Neiland and Bene 2004;Kawarazuka 2010; Chuenpagdee 2011). Even with increases in catch landings, the sub-region has been witnessing a net fishery deficit with emphasis on both high-value exports for consumption and low-value for fish meal

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Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

Cited by 127 publications

References 18 publications

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

The Canada Lynx (<em>Lynx canadensis</em>) of Isle Royale: over-harvest, climate change, and the extirpation of an island population

Seafood insecurity, bush meat consumption, and public health emergency in West Africa: Did we miss the early warning signs of an Ebola epidemic?

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