Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated “primary” observer indicates to another (“secondary”) observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

Abstract. Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas.Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds.The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk. Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even lesscertain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges.

Abstract. Our understanding of migratory birds' year-round ecology and evolution remains patchy despite recent fundamental advances. Periodic reviews focus future research and inform conservation and management; here, we take advantage of our combined experiences working on Western Hemisphere avian migration systems to highlight recent lessons and critical gaps in knowledge. Among topics discussed are: (1) The pipeline from pure to applied researchers leaves room for improvement. (2) Population limitation and regulation includes both seasonal and between-season interactions. (3) The study of movements of small-bodied species remains a major research frontier. (4) We must increase our understanding of population connectivity. (5) With few exceptions, population regulation has barely been investigated. (6) We have increasingly integrated landscape configuration of habitats, large-scale habitat disturbances, and habitat quality impacts into models of seasonal and overall demographic success. (7) The post-breeding season (late summer for latitudinal migrants) is increasingly appreciated for its impacts on demography. (8) We recognize the diverse ways that avian brood parasites, nest predators, and food availability affect demography. (9) Source-sink and meta-population models help us understand migratory avian distributions among fragmented habitats. (10) Advances in modeling have improved estimates of annual survival and fecundity, but for few species. (11) Populations can be limited by ecological conditions in winter, but habitat needs are poorly known for most species at this time. (12) Migration tends to occupy broad spatial fronts that may change seasonally or when migrants cross major barriers. En route conditions can limit migrant populations; linking migration habitat quality indicators to fitness or population consequences presents a major challenge. (14) A variety of intra-tropical Neotropical migration patterns are recognizable, but almost nothing is known about these systems beyond descriptions of a few typical species' movements. (15) Global climate change scenarios predict range and phenology shifts of Neotropical migrant bird populations that must be considered in conservation plans. Future studies will depend on new technologies and the integration of modeling with sophisticated, large-spatial-scale measurement and parameter estimation; whether the pace of research and management involving migratory birds can match the growth of environmental threats remains to be seen.

No abstract

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision‐making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision‐making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.