A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

Abstract

Abstract. Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological reorganization make future conditions uncertain. We used a GIS analysis to assess the vulnerability of 501 reserve units in the National Wildlife Refuge System as a basis for a nationally coordinated response to climate change adaptation. We used measures of climate change exposure (historic rate of temperature change), sensitivity (biome edge and critical habitat for threatened and endangered species), and adaptive capacity (elevation range, latitude range, watershed road density, and watershed protection) to evaluate refuge vulnerability. The vulnerability of individual refuges varied spatially within and among biomes. We suggest that the spatial variability in vulnerability be used to define suites of management approaches that capitalize on local conditions to facilitate adaptation and spread risk across the reserve network. We conceptually define four divergent management strategies to facilitate adaption: refugia, ecosystem maintenance, ''natural'' adaptation, and facilitated transitions. Furthermore, we recognize that adaptation approaches can use historic (i.e., retrospective) and future (prospective) condition as temporal reference points to define management goals.

Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

“…Rather than using our study findings as a direct prediction of species loss due to climate change, our results are better interpreted as a relative index of species sensitivity to complement a comprehensive vulnerability assessment [62] that incorporates additional spatially-explicit landscape and landuse data, and information about physiological sensitivity and potential responses to climate change. The inability of many salamander species to immigrate to suitable habitats in the face of rapid environmental change emphasizes the importance of identifying climatically-resilient refugia to help buffer impacts of a changing climate.…”

Improving Conservation Outcomes with a New Paradigm for Understanding Species’ Fundamental and Realized Adaptive Capacity

“…Conserving refugia (Brost & Beier ) yet allowing other areas to be dynamic, while minimizing global extinctions, may constitute a feasible hedging strategy (Magness et al . ) for optimizing AC. Likewise, understanding how AC varies among populations within a species (e.g., see Box 1) will better enable managers to maintain genetic diversity (Alberto et al .…”

The world’s largest wilderness protection network after 50 years: An assessment of ecological system representation in the U.S. National Wilderness Preservation System

“…Note: one example of a rare, well-represented ecological system is the Okefenokee Swamp on the Florida-Georgia border. full expression of nature's diverse ecological systems can also serve as ''untreated control units'' for experimental treatments on other lands where novel methods of restoration and management will be increasingly implemented to mitigate the impacts of climate change and other human-caused stressors (Magness et al, 2011). This is the first study to assess the wilderness system at the ecological system level, including a comparison of ecological diversity to federal lands and all U.S. lands, an assessment of accumulation of representation over time, and an investigation of the relationship between rarity of ecological system and protection in wilderness.…”