Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

[1] The coupling of the Van Allen radiation belts to the Earth's atmosphere through precipitating particles is an area of intense scientific interest. Currently, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the precipitating characteristics of medium energy electrons (>20 keV), and even more uncertainties for relativistic electrons. In this paper we examine roughly 10 years of measurements of trapped and precipitating electrons available from the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES)/Space Environment Monitor (SEM-2), which has provided long-term global data in this energy range. We show that the POES SEM-2 detectors suffer from some contamination issues that complicate the understanding of the measurements, but that the observations provide insight into the precipitation of energetic electrons from the radiation belts, and may be developed into a useful climatology for medium energy electrons. Electron contamination also allows POES/SEM-2 to provide unintended observations of >700 keV relativistic electrons. Finally, there is an energy-dependent time delay observed in the POES/SEM-2 observations, with the relativistic electron enhancement (electrons >800 keV) delayed by approximately one week relative to the >30 keV electron enhancement, probably due to the timescales of the acceleration processes. Observations of trapped relativistic electron fluxes near the geomagnetic equator by GOES show similar delays, indicating a "coherency" to the radiation belts at high and low orbits, and also a strong link between trapped and precipitating particle fluxes. Such large delays should have consequences for the timing of the atmospheric impact of geomagnetic storms.Citation: Rodger, C. J., M. A. Clilverd, J. C. Green, and M. M. Lam (2010), Use of POES SEM-2 observations to examine radiation belt dynamics and energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere,

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Pulsating auroras show quasi-periodic intensity modulations caused by the precipitation of energetic electrons of the order of tens of keV. It is expected theoretically that not only these electrons but also subrelativistic/relativistic electrons precipitate simultaneously into the ionosphere owing to whistler mode wave-particle interactions. The height-resolved electron density profile was observed with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) Tromsø VHF radar on 17 November 2012. Electron density enhancements were clearly identified at altitudes >68 km in association with the pulsating aurora, suggesting precipitation of electrons with a broadband energy range from~10 keV up to at least 200 keV. The riometer and network of subionospheric radio wave observations also showed the energetic electron precipitations during this period. During this period, the footprint of the Van Allen Probe-A satellite was very close to Tromsø and the satellite observed rising tone emissions of the lower band chorus (LBC) waves near the equatorial plane. Considering the observed LBC waves and electrons, we conducted a computer simulation of the wave-particle interactions. This showed simultaneous precipitation of electrons at both tens of keV and a few hundred keV, which is consistent with the energy spectrum estimated by the inversion method using the EISCAT observations. This result revealed that electrons with a wide energy range simultaneously precipitate into the ionosphere in association with the pulsating aurora, providing the evidence that pulsating auroras are caused by whistler chorus waves. We suggest that scattering by propagating whistler simultaneously causes both the precipitations of subrelativistic electrons and the pulsating aurora.

[1] Using six Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) satellites that have carried the Space Environment Module-2 instrument package, a total of 436,422 individual half-orbits between 1998 and 2010 were inspected by an automatic detection algorithm searching for electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) driven relativistic electron precipitation (REP). The algorithm searched for one of the key characteristics of EMIC-driven REP, identified as the simultaneity between spikes in the P1 (52 keV differential proton flux channel) and P6 (>800 keV electron channel). In all, 2331 proton precipitation associated REP (PPAREP) events were identified. The majority of events were observed at L-values within the outer radiation belt (3 < L < 7) and were more common in the dusk and night sectors as determined by magnetic local time. The majority of events occurred outside the plasmasphere, at L-values~1 R e greater than the plasmapause location determined from two different statistical models. The events make up a subset of EMIC-driven proton spikes investigated by Sandanger et al. (2009), and potentially reflect different overall characteristics compared with proton spikes, particularly when comparing their location to that of the plasmapause, i.e., EMIC-driven proton precipitation inside the plasmapause, and potentially EMIC-driven REP outside the plasmapause. There was no clear relationship between the location of plasmaspheric plumes and the locations of the PPAREP events detected. Analysis of the PPAREP event occurrence indicates that high solar wind speed and high geomagnetic activity levels increase the likelihood of an event being detected. The peak PPAREP event occurrence was during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, consistent with the 2003 maximum in the geomagnetic activity index, Ap.Citation: Carson, B. R., C. J. Rodger, and M. A. Clilverd (2012), POES satellite observations of EMIC-wave driven relativistic electron precipitation during 1998-2010,

On 4 November 2003, the largest solar flare ever recorded saturated the GOES satellite X‐ray detectors, making an assessment of its size difficult. However, VLF radio phase advances effectively recorded the lowering of the VLF reflection height and hence the lowest edge of the Earth's ionosphere. Previously, these phase advances were used to extrapolate the GOES 0.1–0.8 nm (“XL”) fluxes from saturation at X17 to give a peak magnitude of X45 ± 5 for this great flare. Here it is shown that a similar extrapolation, but using the other GOES X‐ray band, 0.05–0.4 nm (“XS”), is also consistent with a magnitude of X45. Also reported here are VLF phase measurements from two paths near dawn: “Omega Australia” to Dunedin, New Zealand (only just all sunlit) and NPM, Hawaii, to Ny Alesund, Svalbard (only partly sunlit), which also give remarkably good extrapolations of the flare flux, suggesting that VLF paths monitoring flares do not necessarily need to be in full daylight. D region electron densities are modeled as functions of X‐ray flux up to the level of the great X45 flare by using flare‐induced VLF amplitudes together with the VLF phase changes. During this great flare, the “Wait” reflection height, H′, was found to have been lowered to ∼53 km or ∼17 km below the normal midday value of ∼70 km. Finally, XL/XS ratios are examined during some large flares, including the great flare. Plots of such ratios against XL can give quite good estimates of the great flare's size (X45) but without use of VLF measurements.

[1] Here we use the ERA-40 and ECMWF operational surface level air temperature data sets from 1957 to 2006 to examine polar temperature variations during years with different levels of geomagnetic activity, as defined by the A p index. Previous modeling work has suggested that NO x produced at high latitudes by energetic particle precipitation can eventually lead to detectable changes in surface air temperatures (SATs). We find that during winter months, polar SATs in years with high A p index are different than in years with low A p index; the differences are statistically significant at the 2-sigma level and range up to about ±4.5 K, depending on location. The temperature differences are larger when years with wintertime Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are excluded. We take into account solar irradiance variations, unlike previous analyses of geomagnetic effects in ERA-40 and operational data. Although we cannot conclusively show that the polar SAT patterns are physically linked by geomagnetic activity, we conclude that geomagnetic activity likely plays a role in modulating wintertime surface air temperatures. We tested our SAT results against variation in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The results suggested that these were not driving the observed polar SAT variability. However, significant uncertainty is introduced by the Northern Annular Mode, and we cannot robustly exclude a chance linkage between sea surface temperature variability and geomagnetic activity.

Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the Earth’s outer radiation belt continuously affects the chemical composition of the polar mesosphere. EEP can contribute to catalytic ozone loss in the mesosphere through ionization and enhanced production of odd hydrogen. However, the long-term mesospheric ozone variability caused by EEP has not been quantified or confirmed to date. Here we show, using observations from three different satellite instruments, that EEP events strongly affect ozone at 60–80 km, leading to extremely large (up to 90%) short-term ozone depletion. This impact is comparable to that of large, but much less frequent, solar proton events. On solar cycle timescales, we find that EEP causes ozone variations of up to 34% at 70–80 km. With such a magnitude, it is reasonable to suspect that EEP could be an important part of solar influence on the atmosphere and climate system.