Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971-2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years
We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to AD 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article
Abstract. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, the Central Andes has experienced significant climatic and environmental changes characterized by a persistent warming trend, an increase in elevation of the 0 • C isotherm, and sustained glacier shrinkage. These changes have occurred in conjunction with a steadily growing demand for water resources. Given the short span of instrumental hydroclimatic records in this region, longer time span records are needed to understand the nature of climate variability and to improve the predictability of precipitation, a key factor modulating the socio-economic development in the South American Altiplano and adjacent arid lowlands. In this study we present the first quasi-millennial, tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano. This annual (November-October) precipitation reconstruction is based on the Polylepis tarapacana tree-ring width series and represents the closest dendroclimatological record to the Equator in South America. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 707 yr and provides a unique record characterizing the occurrence of extreme events and consistent oscillations in precipitation. It also allows an assessment of the spatial and temporal stabilities of the teleconnections between rainfall in the Altiplano and hemispheric forcings such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Since the 1930s to present, a persistent negative trend in precipitation has been recorded in the reconstruction, with the three driest years since 1300 AD occurring in the last 70 yr. Throughout the 707 yr, the reconstruction contains a clear ENSO-like pattern at interannual to multidecadal time scales, which determines inter-hemispheric linkages between our reconstruction and other precipitation sensitive records modulated by ENSO in North America. Our reconstruction points out that centuryscale dry periods are a recurrent feature in the Altiplano climate, and that the future potential coupling of natural and anthropogenic-induced droughts may have a severe impact on socio-economic activities in the region. Water resource managers must anticipate these changes in order to adapt to future climate change, reduce vulnerability and provide water equitably to all users.
It is generally assumed that tree growth in the upper limit of a forest is mainly controlled by summer temperature. This general statement is mostly based on studies from extra‐tropical mountains and has been rarely evaluated in subtropical latitudes frequently characterized by drier climates. In the subtropical mountains from Northwestern Argentina (∼23° S), annual precipitation decreases with elevation from >1500 mm at 1200– 1500 m, to <200 mm above 4000 m. In consequence, tree growth at high elevations in the region may be seriously limited by water supply. In order to assess the influence of precipitation on tree growth, we evaluated the relationships between climatic variations and radial growth in four species growing at different altitudinal zones: Juglans australis from the montane cloud forest at 1800 m; Alnus acuminata from the montane savanna‐like woodland at 2700 m; Prosopis ferox from the subalpine dryland at 3500 m; and Polylepis tarapacana from the high‐elevation alpine dryland at 4750 m. Dendrochronological techniques were used to relate variations in annual ring width with instrumental climatic records. Growth rings were correctly dated to the year of formation, and the cross‐dated series standardized using autoregressive models to reduce non‐climatic signals present in the records. Tree‐ring chronologies, ranging from 117 to 341 years, were compared, during the common period, with instrumental climatic records using correlation‐function analysis. In spite of the remarkable differences in elevation and environmental conditions among the sampling sites, correlation functions with climate indicated that the radial growth of the four species is largely controlled by precipitation. In most cases, increased precipitation during the previous and current growing seasons favors tree growth, while temperatures are negatively correlated with radial growth, likely due to the negative effect on water availability. These results indicate that the generalized idea of upper‐treeline growth limited by summer temperatures should be carefully evaluated in low‐latitude environments and does not apply to subtropical areas with severe water deficits or strong moisture seasonalities.
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