Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings

Christie, Duncan A.; Boninsegna, José A.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Lara, Antonio; Quesne, Carlos Le; Morales, Mariano; Mudelsee, Manfred; Stahle, David W.; Villalba, Ricardo

doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0723-4

Cited by 87 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…7a). These spectral characteristics, observed since the mid 15th century, have also been described for tree-ring hydroclimatic reconstructions from others region of the Southern Andes, where ENSO plays an active role in modulating the local climate ( LeQuesne et al, 2009;Christie et al, 2011). Decadal to multidecadal frequencies in our reconstruction have been relatively high since the 17th century.…”

Section: Spectral Properties Enso and Temporal Regimessupporting

confidence: 82%

Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, the Central Andes has experienced significant climatic and environmental changes characterized by a persistent warming trend, an increase in elevation of the 0 • C isotherm, and sustained glacier shrinkage. These changes have occurred in conjunction with a steadily growing demand for water resources. Given the short span of instrumental hydroclimatic records in this region, longer time span records are needed to understand the nature of climate variability and to improve the predictability of precipitation, a key factor modulating the socio-economic development in the South American Altiplano and adjacent arid lowlands. In this study we present the first quasi-millennial, tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano. This annual (November-October) precipitation reconstruction is based on the Polylepis tarapacana tree-ring width series and represents the closest dendroclimatological record to the Equator in South America. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 707 yr and provides a unique record characterizing the occurrence of extreme events and consistent oscillations in precipitation. It also allows an assessment of the spatial and temporal stabilities of the teleconnections between rainfall in the Altiplano and hemispheric forcings such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Since the 1930s to present, a persistent negative trend in precipitation has been recorded in the reconstruction, with the three driest years since 1300 AD occurring in the last 70 yr. Throughout the 707 yr, the reconstruction contains a clear ENSO-like pattern at interannual to multidecadal time scales, which determines inter-hemispheric linkages between our reconstruction and other precipitation sensitive records modulated by ENSO in North America. Our reconstruction points out that centuryscale dry periods are a recurrent feature in the Altiplano climate, and that the future potential coupling of natural and anthropogenic-induced droughts may have a severe impact on socio-economic activities in the region. Water resource managers must anticipate these changes in order to adapt to future climate change, reduce vulnerability and provide water equitably to all users.

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Section: Spectral Properties Enso and Temporal Regimessupporting

confidence: 82%

Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

et al. 2012

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“…3b) and a 700-year winter sea salt record from the Law Dome ice core also shows a tendency for more positive SAM conditions since ∼AD 1500 19 . Similarly, an increase in the frequency of severe droughts in the central Andes over the past six centuries has been attributed to southward contraction of the westerly storm tracks 20 ( Supplementary Fig. 7).…”

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confidence: 89%

“…However, summer temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula are already sufficiently high to cause extensive surface ice melt 9 , and SAMdriven warming in other seasons may further increase the duration of the melt season in this region 28 . Future greenhouse-driven increases in the SAM are also likely to have implications for limiting warming over continental Antarctica 5 and for southward expansion of the dry subtropical climate belts 18,20 . Furthermore, the tropical Pacific is predicted to experience more extreme El Niño events during the coming century 29 and our findings highlight the importance of being able to accurately model how their remote climate teleconnections will also impact the SAM.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium

et al. 2014

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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere 1,2 , influencing latitudinal rainfall distribution and temperatures from the subtropics to Antarctica. The positive summer trend in the SAM over recent decades is widely attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion 2 ; however, the brevity of observational records from Antarctica 1 -one of the core zones that defines SAM variability-limits our understanding of long-term SAM behaviour. Here we reconstruct annual mean changes in the SAM since AD 1000 using, for the first time, proxy records that encompass the full mid-latitude to polar domain across the Drake Passage sector. We find that the SAM has undergone a progressive shift towards its positive phase since the fifteenth century, causing cooling of the main Antarctic continent at the same time that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed. The positive trend in the SAM since ∼AD 1940 is reproduced by multimodel climate simulations forced with rising greenhouse gas levels and later ozone depletion, and the long-term average SAM index is now at its highest level for at least the past 1,000 years. Reconstructed SAM trends before the twentieth century are more prominent than those in radiative-forcing climate experiments and may be associated with a teleconnected response to tropical Pacific climate. Our findings imply that predictions of further greenhouse-driven increases in the SAM over the coming century 3 also need to account for the possibility of opposing e ects from tropical Pacific climate changes.

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“…It has also commonly been reconstructed from dendrochronology mostly in North-America (Cook et al, 1999(Cook et al, , 2004Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998;Woodhouse and Brown, 2001) and in the Mediterranean basin (Nicault et al, 2008). In SSA, Christie et al (2009) have successfully reconstructed high frequency variations of the PDSI in the Temperate Mediterranean Transition in the Andes (TMT) back to the 14th century. However, as for temperature and precipitation, the PDSI also needs to be reconstructed at larger spatial (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A millennial multi-proxy reconstruction of summer PDSI for Southern South America

Boucher

Guiot

Chapron³

2011

Clim. Past

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Abstract. We present the first spatially explicit field reconstruction of the summer (DJF) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Southern Hemisphere. Our multi-proxy reconstruction focuses on Southern South America (SSA, south of 20 • S) and is based on a novel spectral analogue method that aims at reconstructing low PDSI frequencies independently from higher frequencies. The analysis of past regimes and trends in extreme wet spells and droughts reveals considerable geographical and temporal variations over the last millennium in SSA. Although recent changes are in some cases notorious, most were not exceptional at the scale of the last thousand years. Our reconstruction highlights that low frequency water availability fluctuations in Patagonia were generally in antiphase with the rest of the subcontinent. Providing the fact that modern patterns of changes are transferable to the past, we show that such antiphases within SSA's hydroclimate could be attributed to the spatially contrasted response of summer PDSI to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). However, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals are also embedded within the PDSI series during the 20th century. All these ocean-atmospheric forcings acted synergically, but the dominant influence appeared highly compartmentalized through space, highlighting clear AAO-(e.g. South Patagonia) and ENSO-(e.g. the Pampas) dominated regions. Our results therefore emphasize the complexity of water-availability fluctuations in SSA and their important dependence on external ocean-atmospheric forcings.

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Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings

Cited by 87 publications

References 71 publications

Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium

A millennial multi-proxy reconstruction of summer PDSI for Southern South America

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