El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries

Li, Jinbao; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Cook, Edward R.; Morales, Mariano; Christie, Duncan A.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Chen, Fahu; D’Arrigo, Rosanne; Fowler, Anthony; Gou, Xiaohua; Fang, Keyan

doi:10.1038/nclimate1936

Cited by 354 publications

(431 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Historically, ENSO has been linked with interannual variability of climate over decades and even centuries (Li et al, 2013). There is strong variability at the 3-to 7-year timescale as well as on inter-decadal timescales between 12 and 15 years (Birk et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Pompa-García¹,

Némiga²

2015

Atmósfera

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RESUMENLa Oscilación del Sur El Niño (ENSO, por sus siglas en inglés) es el principal fenómeno de circulación de gran escala que ocasiona variabilidad climática en el norte de México. El desafío actual consiste en entender sus consecuencias para los procesos climáticos y ecológicos de los ecosistemas. En este contexto, se comparó el grado de asociación de tres diferentes índices de ENSO con la precipitación local (P) en el norte de México, y se utilizaron series dendrocronológicas (cronologías de anillos de crecimiento [TRI, por su siglas en inglés]) de Pinus cooperi para valorar su impacto en el crecimiento forestal. Los resultados mostraron un asociación importante entre ENSO, la precipitación del invierno anterior y el TRI (r > 0.5, p = 0.05), lo cual indica que hay una relación directa entre las fases cálidas de ENSO y el crecimiento de los árboles. El índice multivariado de ENSO explicó ligeramente mejor que otros índices la conexión entre P y el crecimiento radial. Estos resultados pueden apoyar futuras investigaciones sobre los efectos de ENSO en el clima local y los ecosistemas forestales. ABSTRACTEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important large-scale circulatory phenomenon that causes climatic variability in northern Mexico. The current challenge is to understand its consequences for both local climate and ecological processes of ecosystems. Within this context, we compared the degree of association of three different ENSO indices with local seasonal precipitation (P) in northern Mexico, and used dendrochronological series (tree-ring chronologies [TRI]) of Pinus cooperi to assess the impact of forest growth. The results showed a strong association between ENSO, previous winter precipitation and TRI (r > 0.5, p = 0.05), indicating a positive relationship between warm ENSO phases and subsequent tree growth. The multivariate ENSO index was slightly better at explaining the connection between P and radial growth than other indices. These results could be used to support further research on the effects of ENSO on local climate and forest ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Pompa-García¹,

Némiga²

2015

Atmósfera

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“…Finally, increased SST associated with climate change might have gradually modulated ENSO's behaviour [25][26][27] , predictability 4 and impacts on the yields. We also note that further assessment is needed for the impacts on yields because of other major climate modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole 28,29 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

et al. 2014

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The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by À 4.3 to þ 0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal ( À 4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

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“…Cane, 2005;Li et al, 2013;Mann et al, 2005;McPhaden et al, 2006;Tudhope et al, 2001;Wunsch, 1999) and that its teleconnected influences to at least some distant regions (e.g. western North America and South America) have likewise varied (Gershunov and Barnett, 1998;Gershunov et al, 1999;McCabe Jr. and Dettinger, 1999;.…”

Section: Changes In Enso-flood Relationships Through Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale

Ward

Eisner

Flörke

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

132

138

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Abstract. Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water -a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958-2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

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El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries

Cited by 354 publications

References 28 publications

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale

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