Supported by several recent investigations, the empirical pricing kernel (PK) puzzle might be considered as a stylized fact. Based on an economic model with referencedependent preferences for the financial investors, we emphasize a microeconomic view that explains the puzzle via state-dependent aggregate preferences. We also investigate how the shape of the PK estimated from option and stock market index returns changes in relation to the volatility risk premium.
Summary. This chapter deals with nonparametric estimation of the risk neutral density. We present three different approaches which do not require parametric functional assumptions on the underlying asset price dynamics nor on the distributional form of the risk neutral density. The first estimator is a kernel smoother of the second derivative of call prices, while the second procedure applies kernel type smoothing in the implied volatility domain. In the conceptually different third approach we assume the existence of a stochastic discount factor (pricing kernel) which establishes the risk neutral density conditional on the physical measure of the underlying asset. Via direct series type estimation of the pricing kernel we can derive an estimate of the risk neutral density by solving a constrained optimization problem. The methods are compared using European call option prices. The focus of the presentation is on practical aspects such as appropriate choice of smoothing parameters in order to facilitate the application of the techniques.
Pricing kernels play a major role in quantifying risk aversion and investors' preferences. Several empirical studies reported that pricing kernels exhibit a common pattern across different markets. Mostly visual inspection and occasionally numerically summarise are used to make comparison. With increasing amount of information updated every day, the empirical pricing kernels can be viewed as an object evolving over time. We propose a systematic modelling approach to describing the evolution of the empirical pricing kernels. The approach is based on shape invariant models. It captures the common features contained in the shape of the functions and at the same time characterises the variability between the pricing kernels based on a few interpretable parameters. The method is demonstrated with the European options and returns values of DAX index.
Summary. This chapter deals with nonparametric estimation of the risk neutral density. We present three different approaches which do not require parametric functional assumptions on the underlying asset price dynamics nor on the distributional form of the risk neutral density. The first estimator is a kernel smoother of the second derivative of call prices, while the second procedure applies kernel type smoothing in the implied volatility domain. In the conceptually different third approach we assume the existence of a stochastic discount factor (pricing kernel) which establishes the risk neutral density conditional on the physical measure of the underlying asset. Via direct series type estimation of the pricing kernel we can derive an estimate of the risk neutral density by solving a constrained optimization problem. The methods are compared using European call option prices. The focus of the presentation is on practical aspects such as appropriate choice of smoothing parameters in order to facilitate the application of the techniques.
Summary. This chapter deals with the estimation of risk neutral distributions for pricing index options resulting from the hypothesis of the risk neutral valuation principle. After justifying this hypothesis, we shall focus on parametric estimation methods for the risk neutral density functions determining the risk neutral distributions. We we shall differentiate between the direct and the indirect way. Following the direct way, parameter vectors are estimated which characterize the distributions from selected statistical families to model the risk neutral distributions. The idea of the indirect approach is to calibrate characteristic parameter vectors for stochastic models of the asset price processes, and then to extract the risk neutral density function via Fourier methods. For every of the reviewed methods the calculation of option prices under hypothetically true risk neutral distributions is a building block. We shall give explicit formula for call and put prices w.r.t. reviewed parametric statistical families used for direct estimation. Additionally, we shall introduce the Fast Fourier Transform method of call option pricing developed in [6]. It is intended to compare the reviewed estimation methods empirically.
Supported by several recent investigations, the empirical pricing kernel (EPK) puzzle might be considered a stylized fact. Based on an economic model with state dependent preferences for the financial investors, we want to emphasize a microeconomic view that succeeds in explaining the puzzle. We retain the expected utility framework in a one period model and illustrate the case when the state is defined with respect to a reference point. We further investigate how the model relates the shape of the EPK to the economic conditions.
We present two methods based on functional principal component analysis (FPCA) for the estimation of smooth derivatives of a sample of random functions, which are observed in a more than one-dimensional domain. We apply eigenvalue decomposition to a) the dual covariance matrix of the derivatives, and b) the dual covariance matrix of the observed curves. To handle noisy data from discrete observations, we rely on local polynomial regressions. If curves are contained in a finite-dimensional function space, the second method performs better asymptotically. We apply our methodology in a simulation and empirical study, in which we estimate state price density (SPD) surfaces from call option prices. We identify three main components, which can be interpreted as volatility, skewness and tail factors. We also find evidence for term structure variation.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.