SummaryBackgroundDetailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.MethodsWe have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations in...

Summary Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions acro...

SummaryBackgroundNational levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among...

ABSTRACT:Objective: To analyze under-5 mortality rates and leading causes in Brazil and states in 1990 and 2015, using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 estimates. Methods: The main sources of data for all-causes under-5 mortality and live births estimates were the mortality information system, surveys, and censuses. Proportions and rates per 1,000 live births (LB) were calculated for total deaths and leading causes. Results: Estimates of under-5 deaths in Brazil were 191,505 in 1990, and 51,226 in 2015, 90% of which were infant deaths. The rates per 1,000 LB showed a reduction of 67.6% from 1990 to 2015, achieving the proposed target established by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The reduction generally was more than 60% in states, with a faster reduction in the poorest Northeast region. The ratio of the highest and lowest rates in the states decreased from 4.9 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2015, indicating a reduction in socioeconomic regional disparities. Although prematurity showed a 72% reduction, it still remains as the leading cause of death (COD), followed by diarrheal diseases in 1990, and congenital anomalies, birth asphyxia and septicemia neonatal in 2015. Conclusion: Under-5 mortality has decreased over the past 25 years, with reduction of regional disparities. However, pregnancy and childbirth-related causes remain as major causes of death, together with congenital anomalies. Intersectoral and specific public health policies must be continued to improve living conditions and health care in order to achieve further reduction of under-5 mortality rates in Brazil.

There is no consensus regarding how the growth of preterm infants should be monitored or what constitutes their ideal pattern of growth, especially after term-corrected age. The concept that the growth of preterm infants should match that of healthy fetuses is not substantiated by data and, in practice, is seldom attained, particularly for very preterm infants. Hence, by hospital discharge, many preterm infants are classified as postnatal growth-restricted. In a recent systematic review, 61 longitudinal reference charts were identified, most with considerable limitations in the quality of gestational age estimation, anthropometric measures, feeding regimens, and how morbidities were described. We suggest that the correct comparator for assessing the growth of preterm infants, especially those who are moderately or late preterm, is a cohort of preterm newborns (not fetuses or term infants) with an uncomplicated intrauterine life and low neonatal and infant morbidity. Such growth monitoring should be comprehensive, as recommended for term infants, and should include assessments of postnatal length, head circumference, weight/length ratio, and, if possible, fat and fat-free mass. Preterm postnatal growth standards meeting these criteria are now available and may be used to assess preterm infants until 64 weeks' postmenstrual age (6 months' corrected age), the time at which they overlap, without the need for any adjustment, with the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards for term newborns. Despite remaining nutritional gaps, 90% of preterm newborns (ie, moderate to late preterm infants) can be monitored by using the International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century Preterm Postnatal Growth Standards from birth until life at home.

More than half of the VLBW infants born at public university level 3 Brazilian hospitals either die or survive with major morbidities.

BackgroundCurrent methods to assess the gestational age during prenatal care or at birth are a global challenge. Disadvantages, such as low accessibility, high costs, and imprecision of clinical tests and ultrasonography measurements, may compromise health decisions at birth, based on the gestational age. Newborns’ organs and tissues can indirectly indicate their physical maturity, and we hypothesized that evolutionary changes in their skin, detected using an optoelectronic device meter, may aid in estimating the gestational age. This study analyzed the feasibility of using newborn skin reflectance to estimate the gestational age at birth noninvasively.Methods and findingsA cross-sectional study evaluated the skin reflectance of selected infants, preferably premature, at birth. The first-trimester ultrasound was the reference for gestational age. A prototype of a new noninvasive optoelectronic device measured the backscattering of light from the skin, using a light emitting diode at wavelengths of 470 nm, 575 nm, and 630 nm. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis models were employed to predict gestational age, combining skin reflectance with clinical variables for gestational age estimation. The gestational age at birth of 115 newborns from 24.1 to 41.8 weeks of gestation correlated with the light at 630 nm wavelength reflectance 3.3 mm/6.5 mm ratio distant of the sensor, at the forearm and sole (Pearson’s correlation = 0.505, P < 0.001 and 0.710, P < 0.001, respectively). The best-combined variables to predict the gold standard gestational age at birth was the skin reflectance at wavelengths of 630 nm and 470 nm in combination with birth weight, phototherapy, and adjusted to include incubator stay, and sex (R2 = 0.828, P < 0.001). The main limitation of the study is that it was very specific to the premature population we studied and needs to be studied in a broader spectrum of newborns.ConclusionsA novel automated skin reflectometer device, in combination with clinical variables, was able to predict the gestational age and could be useful when the information is in doubt or is unknown. Multivariable predictive models associated the skin reflectance with easy to obtain clinical parameters, at the birth scenario. External validation needs to be proven in an actual population with the real incidence of premature infants.

Objective: To describe the experience of the 25-year-old trajectory of the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) in Brazil. The first unit was implemented in 1992.Methods: Information and data were collected from publications on the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and the Ministry of Health websites and in national and international journals, about the period 1990-2017. The descriptors used were: “iniciativa hospital amigo da criança”, “hospital amigo da criança”, “baby friendly initiative hospital”, “aleitamento materno” and “breastfeeding”. The number of hospitals in the 25 years, the course of the BFHI and its repercussions on breastfeeding in Brazil were evaluated.Results: The BFHI is an intervention strategy in hospital care at birth focused on the implementation of practices that promote exclusive breastfeeding from the first hours of life and with the support, among other measures of positive impact on breastfeeding, of the International Code of Marketing of Breastmilk Substitutes. Currently, the initiative has been revised, updated and expanded to integrate care for newborns in neonatal units and care for women since prenatal care. It can be concluded that, during these 25 years, the quantity of hospitals varied greatly, with numbers still below the capacity of hospital beds. BFHI shows higher rates of breastfeeding than non-accredited hospitals. However, the number of hospitals are still few when compared to other countries.Conclusions: The BFHI has contributed to breastfeeding in Brazil in recent decades. Greater support for public policies is needed to expand the number of accredited institutions in the country.