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Flood hazard maps are useful tools for land planning and flood risk management in order to increase the safety of flood‐prone areas that can be inundated in the event of levee failure. However, flood hazard assessment is affected by various uncertainties, both aleatory and epistemic. The flood hazard analysis should hence take into account the main sources of uncertainty and quantify the confidence of the results for a given design flood event. To this end, this paper presents a probabilistic method for flood hazard mapping, which considers uncertainty due to breach location and failure time. A reliability analysis of the discretized levee system, performed using the concept of fragility function, enables the preselection of a set of levee sections more susceptible to failure. The probabilities of the breach scenarios (characterized by different breach locations and times) are then calculated using the probability multiplication rule, neglecting multiple breaches. The method is applied to a 96‐km levee‐protected reach in the central portion of the Po River (Northern Italy) and to an adjacent 1,900‐km2 flood‐prone area on the right‐hand side of the river, with a focus on the piping breach mechanism. The numerical simulations are performed through a combined 1D‐2D hydrodynamic model using widespread free software. The results show that the method is effective for probabilistic inundation and flood hazard mapping. In addition, it has the advantage of requiring a smaller computational effort in comparison with the methods based on a classic Monte Carlo procedure.

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The Mediterranean region is one of the most responsive areas to climate change and was identified as a major “hot-spot” based on global climate change analyses. This study provides insight into local climate changes in the Mediterranean region under the scope of the InTheMED project, which is part of the PRIMA programme. Precipitation and temperature were analyzed in an historical period and until the end of this century for five pilot sites, located between the two shores of the Mediterranean region. We used an ensemble of 17 Regional Climate Models, developed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Over the historical period, the temperature presents upward trends, which are statistically significant for some sites, while precipitation does not show significant tendencies. These trends will be maintained in the future as predicted by the climate models projections: all models indicate a progressive and robust warming in all study areas and moderate change in total annual precipitation, but some seasonal variations are identified. Future changes in droughts events over the Mediterranean region were studied considering the maximum duration of the heat waves, their peak temperature, and the number of consecutive dry days. All pilot sites are expected to increase the maximum duration of heat waves and their peak temperature. Furthermore, the maximum number of consecutive dry days is expected to increase for most of the study areas.

Flood hazard assessment is a fundamental step in flood risk mapping. Quantitative assessment requires hydrodynamic modelling of the flooding process in order to calculate the spatial distribution of suitable flood hazard indicators representative of flooding intensity and frequency, hence its potential to result in harm. Flood hazard indicators are usually defined by combining relevant flooding parameters, mainly flood depth and flow velocity, but also flooding arrival time, flooding duration, sediment or contamination load, and so forth.A flood hazard classification is commonly introduced to assign a hazard level to areas potentially subject to flooding. This article presents a systematic review of quantitative methods proposed in the scientific literature or prescribed by government authorities to assess the hazard associated with natural or anthropic flooding. Flood hazard classification methods are listed and compared by specifying their underlying approach (heuristic, conceptual, empirical), the exposed element which they were designed for (people, buildings, vehicles, etc.), and their fields of application (river overflow, dam-break, levee breach, debris flow). Perspectives and future challenges in quantitative flood hazard analysis are also discussed. This review aims to help modellers and practitioners to select the most suitable flood hazard assessment method for the case study of interest. K E Y W O R D Sflood hazard assessment, flood hazard mapping, flood inundation modelling, flood risk management, hazard index, hazard rating

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