Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Abstract

The Mediterranean region is one of the most responsive areas to climate change and was identified as a major “hot-spot” based on global climate change analyses. This study provides insight into local climate changes in the Mediterranean region under the scope of the InTheMED project, which is part of the PRIMA programme. Precipitation and temperature were analyzed in an historical period and until the end of this century for five pilot sites, located between the two shores of the Mediterranean region. We used an ensemble of 17 Regional Climate Models, developed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Over the historical period, the temperature presents upward trends, which are statistically significant for some sites, while precipitation does not show significant tendencies. These trends will be maintained in the future as predicted by the climate models projections: all models indicate a progressive and robust warming in all study areas and moderate change in total annual precipitation, but some seasonal variations are identified. Future changes in droughts events over the Mediterranean region were studied considering the maximum duration of the heat waves, their peak temperature, and the number of consecutive dry days. All pilot sites are expected to increase the maximum duration of heat waves and their peak temperature. Furthermore, the maximum number of consecutive dry days is expected to increase for most of the study areas.

Precipitation and drought trends (1952–2021) in a key hydrological recharge area of the eastern Iberian Peninsula

“…These projected changes (CHJ-interior) are also greater in spring, winter, and also summer, with decreases of >20% and up to 30% in headwaters. Similarly, the projections reported by Todaro et al (2022) for the CHJ also foresee marked decreases in the spring (24%) and autumn (10%) precipitations for three future short- (2021-2040), medium-(1941-2060) and long-(2076-2095) term periods and two emission scenarios: moderate RCP4.5 and higher forcing RCP8.5. However, they indicate an increase in the short-term summer precipitation for RCP4.5 (+7.5%).…”

“…In this declining precipitation context, studies into future climate conditions only corroborate the marked and continuing declining precipitation trend that, although already present in the short term, will become much worse in the last third of the 21st century (Miró et al, 2021). Todaro et al (2022) support these results, especially for the medium term (2051-2070) and for the RCP4.5 emission scenario, but they differ for higher forcing (RCP8.5). It is also worth mentioning that slight increases are detected in southeastern areas (toward the Mediterranean littoral).…”

Climate Variability and Trends in Imotski, Croatia: An Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation

“…Statistically significant warming trends are found in most of the subcontinental regions studied by Giorgi [9], including the Mediterranean, where the regional temperature trends are characterized by pronounced interdecadal variability. The analysis of five pilot sites, namely, Portugal, Spain, Tunisia, Greece, and Turkey, also revealed positive temperature trends in all the areas studied [8]. Except for Greece, all the observed temperature trends were statistically significant.…”

“…Local factors resulting from the topography of the terrain, orography, and distance from the sea further increase the sensitivity and local and regional differences. Analyses of observation-based data indicate that in the past half-century, the Mediterranean region has experienced a trend toward warmer and drier conditions, with a corresponding rise in the frequency of extreme events [2,5,7,8]. Statistically significant warming trends are found in most of the subcontinental regions studied by Giorgi [9], including the Mediterranean, where the regional temperature trends are characterized by pronounced interdecadal variability.…”

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: A Hydrological Modelling Study Using EURO-CORDEX Climate Scenarios

“…According to IPCC-AR5 and AR6, (winter) rainfall is projected to increase for the DRB's northern part of humid continental climate, whereas (summer) rainfall is projected to decrease in the DRB's southern part of Mediterranean-influenced climate, leading to more frequent and intense summer droughts [6]. Case studies for the Mediterranean region find a very clear warming trend with, at the same time, equivocal trends for precipitation [60][61][62]. Between these two climate zones, and thus in large parts of the DRB, there is a broad transition zone, where even the sign of future precipitation change (positive or negative) is of high uncertainty [6].…”