This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull/push weather elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand for Aruba, originating from the USA and Venezuela. The estimation is based on an econometric methodology consisting of decomposing time series of weather elements and tourism demand, using a Census X-12 decomposition procedure, and subsequently applying a unit root test, anEngle & Granger cointegration test, a Granger causality test, and a Euclidean distance measure.The results show no influence of weather (pull and push) on the seasonal patterns of tourism demand from Venezuela. On the other hand, the study showed a clear causal relationship between (pull and push) seasonal weather variability and tourism demand from the USA.

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Abstract:Vegetation is an important ecosystem on earth. It influences the earth system in many ways. Any influences on this fragile variable should be investigated, especially in a changing climate. Humans can have a positive or a negative influence on plants. This paper investigates the possible impact of tourism development and economic growth on vegetation health using cointegration and causality for Aruba. The proposed framework contributes to a better understanding on the use of remote sensing of vegetation response to tourism development and economic growth. Thereby, provide opportunities for improving the overall strategy for achieving sustainable development on a small island state. The calculations showed that there were relationships between the tourism demand and economic growth on the vegetation health on Aruba for the western part of the island. On the other hand, for the central part of the island, no relationships were found.