Impacts of Cyclic Patterns of Climate on Fluctuations in Tourism Demand: Evidence from Aruba

Oduber, Marck; Ridderstaat, Jorge

doi:10.4172/2324-8807.1000159

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…No statistically significant causal effect was found with respect to the largest tourism demand market for Aruba, that is, the United States, implying that price and business cycles had no effect on tourism demand cycles from this country. This suggests that other cyclical factors, such as weather (Oduber and Ridderstaat 2016), may be at work on the cyclical movements of US tourism demand. A more detailed analysis of the outcomes shows a similar type of result as in the case of the aggregate tourism demand cycle, when it comes to the link between domestic price and US tourism demand cycles.…”

Section: Empirical Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Business Cycle Effects and Tourism Demand Cycles

Croes

Ridderstaat

Rivera

2017

Journal of Travel Research

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This study examines the relationship between business and tourism demand cycles in Aruba and Barbados during 1970–2015. The study uses a 2SLS method and is grounded in the output gap approach. The results indicate that business cycles explain nearly 49% of tourism demand flows to Aruba and nearly 91% to Barbados. Thus, the study sheds light on the nature of the relationship between business and tourism demand cycles, which could help managers and policy makers refine their strategies to further tourism development. Procyclical and asymmetric movements characterized the long-term co-movements between the business cycles and tourism demand variables. However, individual variables were stationary, hence transitory in nature, and therefore mainly driven by demand motivations. The asymmetric fluctuations were defined by positive and negative gaps, with the former displaying stronger duration effects compared to the latter. The relationship between the two variables seems country specific in nature.

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Section: Empirical Findings and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Business Cycle Effects and Tourism Demand Cycles

Croes

Ridderstaat

Rivera

2017

Journal of Travel Research

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“…Part of the research focuses on the impact of climate cycle patterns on tourism demand and believes that the ENSO impacts tourism demand. For example, Oduber and Ridderstaat found that ENSO significantly affects tourism demand in the United States and the Netherlands [23]. Vivienne and Marra found that during 1994-2011, the climate cycle pattern of the source country was an essential determinant of tourism demand in the Philippines [24].…”

Section: The Impact Of Enso On Natural Tourismmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Number of Visitors to Natural Attractions: The Moderating Effect of Disposable Personal Income, per Capita GDP and Population

et al. 2021

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Analyzing the impact of El Nilo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of tourists is essential in realizing the sustainable development of natural scenic spots. From the current research results, research on the effects of ENSO on tourism focuses on the impact of the formation of the natural environment. However, there is a lack of ENSO-related research on the number of people arriving at natural attractions. This paper considers the adjustment effects of personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size and constructs a new framework of ENSO’s influence on tourism. This paper builds a system GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) and analyzes the impact of ENSO on tourist flow by using Google Trend data (big data technology) to obtain annual passenger flow data of 48 natural scenic spots in the United States (mainly national parks and national forests). The empirical results show that the increase in ENSO has led to a significant decrease in visitors to natural attractions in the United States. Moreover, the increase in personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size can weaken the relationship between ENSO and the number of tourists. This research expands and enriches the theoretical perspective of ENSO and outdoor tourism.

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