Adverse weather impacts the safety and efficiency of aviation. Convective storms, turbulence, and icing are aviation weather hazards that can lead to unpleasant rides and, in the worst case scenario, pose safety risks. Commercial flight route planning tools are largely based on wind optimization, and the daily air traffic flow discussion is heavily focused on avoidance of deep convective storms. Other hazards such as icing (mostly an issue for general aviation) and turbulence have to be manually accounted for by a dispatcher. Routing solutions favoring avoidance of convective storms can result in undesired outcomes such as significant encounters or extended duration of turbulence. This study examines various flight routing approaches, taking into account multiple weather hazards for a range of decision time horizons. A range of time horizons (that is, look-ahead distances) is used to assess the potential benefits of using weather uplinks (for example, onto an electronic flight bag) as compared to the limited information available through the onboard radar. The paper provides a glance at how to improve trajectory-based operations for safe, efficient, and comfortable airborne travel in the future.
Concept and first results are presented of a model development DIVMET for providing guidance for two-dimensional, horizontal navigation of an aircraft on an arbitrary prescribed flight level around or through adverse weather. In this paper we focus on thunderstorms but a later model development will allow for other weather hazards such as icing or volcanic ash. Adverse weather is represented as impermeable polygons on vertically staggered horizontal planes. The model concept maps the joint decision making process of pilot and air traffic controller into an algorithm, which encompasses (1) the recognition of thunderstorms within the pilot's field of view. The latter may consist either of the typical on-board weather radar display of varying range, or of the visible range determined by atmospheric conditions, or of the spatially unlimited “full view”. DIVMET then (2), in accordance with international flight rules, applies a minimum safety distance to any recognized adverse weather object, and (3) determines a reasonably short route not only around a single weather object but also through a whole field of them. Finally (4), DIVMET moves the aircraft purely kinematic along the previously determined diverted route ignoring so far any potential aircraft-aircraft conflicts. That movement may also be achieved by an externally coupled air traffic model which then also avoids the latter conflicts, accounts for aircraft performance and thus enables to study the combined effect of weather and traffic. Here we present the concept of the path finding through a storm field from a meteorological perspective and outline its potential applications.
Abstract:The safety and efficiency of air traffic are significantly affected by adverse weather. This holds especially in terminal maneuvering areas (TMA) where, in addition to the impact of weather itself, potential weather avoidance routes are strongly restricted by air traffic regulations. A weather avoidance model DIVMET has been developed which proposes a route through a field of developing thunderstorms. Air traffic control regulations have not been included in it at this stage. DIVMET was applied to the TMA of Hong Kong International Airport as air traffic control (ATC) there has become interested in improving the controller's work load, especially for managing incoming traffic by avoidance route simulations. Although visual inspection of simulated avoidance routes by ATC was satisfactory, a quantitative validation of simulated with real observed routes was also carried out. Two real adverse weather situations with thunderstorms within the TMA of Hong Kong and with heavily distorted traffic were chosen. The main objective prior to any validation, however, was to identify routes which are solely impacted by weather but do not show any signs of regulation. Route selection was done on the base of flight position data. Landing flights were selected and deviations from standard approach routes were analyzed. As a result, the majority of 272 flights were found to be affected by both weather and regulations (60%), highlighting the challenge for air traffic controllers to manage landing traffic under adverse weather conditions safely and efficiently. Only a few weather-affected flights (7%) were not regulated and could be used for validation. DIVMET simulation routes were presented to local air traffic controllers who confirmed them as potential and realistic avoidance routes. DIVMET weather avoidance route simulations within a TMA appear to be helpful but further model development has to incorporate traffic regulations, to include holdings, short-cuts, and slow-downs.
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