Abstract:Abstract:The safety and efficiency of air traffic are significantly affected by adverse weather. This holds especially in terminal maneuvering areas (TMA) where, in addition to the impact of weather itself, potential weather avoidance routes are strongly restricted by air traffic regulations. A weather avoidance model DIVMET has been developed which proposes a route through a field of developing thunderstorms. Air traffic control regulations have not been included in it at this stage. DIVMET was applied to the… Show more
“…The smoothing reduces the maxima slightly; for this reason a reduction of the threshold is reasonable. A threshold of 7 mm h −1 is used, which is slightly below the value of 37 dBZ that is mentioned in the literature to affect aviation (Sauer et al ., ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 92%
“…The value at which reflectivity starts to affect air traffic operations depends on several factors such as the aircraft type; ideally, the definition of a ‘significant’ convective intensity threshold event should reflect the fact that a competent pilot will decide whether or not to divert his/her flight to avoid it. Surveys in the aviation community have demonstrated that pilots tend to avoid regions with radar reflectivities above 37 dBZ, which corresponds to a precipitation intensity of about 7.5 mm h −1 (Sauer et al ., ).…”
An hourly initialized numerical weather prediction model, AROME-NWC, optimized for nowcasting purposes was used in this study to predict the probabilities of occurrence of convective aviation risks by generating an ensemble of time-lagged forecasts. The objective is the prediction of echotop and reflectivity maximum based on simulated 3D radar reflectivity columns. Forecasts were postprocessed using an upscaling of the model output fields in order to account for uncertainties in horizontal positions. Simulated radar reflectivities were bias corrected using a quantile-to-quantile mapping resulting in an improvement of the ensemble performance. A lagged-average-forecast ensemble was then constructed in order to blend mesoscale deterministic and ensemble forecasts, using numerical weather prediction systems that will soon be available in real time. The probabilities of reflectivities predicted by the ensemble are shown to have objective value at thresholds that are meaningful for air traffic control. Possible applications for aviation management purposes are discussed.
“…The smoothing reduces the maxima slightly; for this reason a reduction of the threshold is reasonable. A threshold of 7 mm h −1 is used, which is slightly below the value of 37 dBZ that is mentioned in the literature to affect aviation (Sauer et al ., ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 92%
“…The value at which reflectivity starts to affect air traffic operations depends on several factors such as the aircraft type; ideally, the definition of a ‘significant’ convective intensity threshold event should reflect the fact that a competent pilot will decide whether or not to divert his/her flight to avoid it. Surveys in the aviation community have demonstrated that pilots tend to avoid regions with radar reflectivities above 37 dBZ, which corresponds to a precipitation intensity of about 7.5 mm h −1 (Sauer et al ., ).…”
An hourly initialized numerical weather prediction model, AROME-NWC, optimized for nowcasting purposes was used in this study to predict the probabilities of occurrence of convective aviation risks by generating an ensemble of time-lagged forecasts. The objective is the prediction of echotop and reflectivity maximum based on simulated 3D radar reflectivity columns. Forecasts were postprocessed using an upscaling of the model output fields in order to account for uncertainties in horizontal positions. Simulated radar reflectivities were bias corrected using a quantile-to-quantile mapping resulting in an improvement of the ensemble performance. A lagged-average-forecast ensemble was then constructed in order to blend mesoscale deterministic and ensemble forecasts, using numerical weather prediction systems that will soon be available in real time. The probabilities of reflectivities predicted by the ensemble are shown to have objective value at thresholds that are meaningful for air traffic control. Possible applications for aviation management purposes are discussed.
“…Weather conditions influence pilots' performances [9], [10]. Tamura et al [11] conducted a simulation study to examine the differences in pilots' scanning behavior during takeoff in daytime and nighttime situations.…”
Among flight crew errors, 54% occurred in the taxiing phase, especially near intersections in low visibility situations. This paper examines pilots' scanning behavior when executing different turning maneuvers at airport intersections both on clear days and in low visibility situations. The Beijing International Airport was reconstructed in an Airbus 320 simulator. Eight male pilots participated in this study. The pilots were required to take full manual control from the last approach point and to taxi according to the predetermined flight plan. The pilots' fixation rate, average fixation duration, and dwell time percentage in each area of interest (AOI) were analyzed during the turning maneuvers near four examined intersections. The results showed that the dwell time percentages in the electronic centralized aircraft monitoring (ECAM) area when executing right turn maneuvers were significantly higher than those when executing left turn maneuvers on clear days. In low visibility situations, the percentages of dwell time in the right view out of the window (OTWR) area when executing right turn maneuvers were significantly higher than those when executing left turn maneuvers. To examine if the scanning behavior reported in this study is safe or not, the pilots' responses to potentially dangerous situations should be further studied.
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