[1] The catastrophic Vaiont landslide (Southern Alps, Italy) of 9 October 1963 moved 2.7 Â 10 8 m 3 of rock that collapsed in an artificial lake, causing a giant wave that killed 1917 people. The landslide was preceded by 2-3 years of creep that ended with the final collapse of the rock mass slipping at about 30 m s À1 . Assuming that creep was localized in a clay-rich water-saturated layer, in this study we propose shear heating as the primary mechanism for the long-term phase of accelerating creep. We study only the creeping phase of the slide, and we model this phase using a rigid block moving over a thin zone of high shear strain rates. Introducing a thermal softening and velocity strengthening law for the basal material, we reformulate the governing equations of a water-saturated porous material, obtaining an estimate for the collapse time of the slide. Our model is calibrated upon real velocity measurements from the Vaiont landslide and provides an estimation of the critical time of failure up to 169 days before the collapse. We also show that the slide became critical $21 days before the collapse, when shear heating started localizing in the clay-rich layer, inducing a tendency for slip localization and thermal runaway instability in a plane. The total loss of strength in the slipping zone during the last minutes prior to the slide is explained by the onset of thermal pressurization, triggered by the temperature rise within the clay-rich layer.

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During the last decade, knowledge over episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events has increased dramatically owing to the widespread installation of GPS and seismic networks. The most puzzling observations are (i) the periodic nature of slow seismic events, (ii) their localization at intermediate depths (estimated 15–40 km), and (iii) the origin of the nonvolcanic fluids that are responsible for the tremor activity. We reconcile these observations using a first principles approach relying on physics, continuum mechanics, and chemistry of serpentinite in the megathrust interface. The approach reproduces the GPS sequences of 17 years of recording in Cascadia, North America, as well as over 10 years in the Hikurangi Trench of New Zealand. We show that strongly endothermic reactions, such as serpentinite dehydration, are required for ETS events. We report that in this tectonic setting, it is its chemical reaction kinetics, not the low friction, that marks serpentinite as a key mineral for stable, self‐sustained oscillations. We find that the subduction zone instabilities are driven from the ductile realm rather than the brittle cover. Even when earthquakes in the cover perturb the oscillator, it relaxes to its fundamental mode. Such a transition from stable oscillations to chaos is witnessed in the ETS signal of NZ following the M6.8, 2007 seismic event, which triggered a secondary mode of oscillations lasting for a few years. We consequently suggest that the rich dynamics of ductile modes of failure may be used to decipher the chaotic time sequences underpinning seismic events.

International audienceStability of undrained shearing in a classical Cauchy continuum has been first analyzed by Rice [1] who showed that instability occurs when the underlying drained deformation becomes unstable (i.e. in the softening regime of the corresponding drained stress-strain curve). However Vardoulakis [2, 3] has shown that Rice's linear stability analysis, if performed at the state of maximum deviator, leads to a sharp transition from infinitely stable to infinitely unstable behaviour, which indicates that the solution of the considered initial-value problem does not exist and consequently that the corresponding problem is mathematically ill-posed. Vardoulakis [4,5] proposed a regularization of the ill-posed problem in the softening regime by resorting to a second grade extension of plasticity theory. In this paper, the kinetics of a granular material is described by a Cosserat continuum as first suggested by Mühlhaus and Vardoulakis [6] and we incorporate the effect of shear heating due to the dissipation of the frictional work. The undrained adiabatic limit is applicable as soon as the slip event is sufficiently rapid and the shear zone broad enough to effectively preclude heat or fluid transfer as it is the case during an earthquake or a landslide. It is shown that shear heating has a destabilizing effect and that instability can occur in the hardening regime if the amount of dilatant strengthening is not sufficient as compared to the effect of thermal pressurization of the pore fluid. It is shown that the linear stability analysis with macro and micro inertia terms leads to the selection of a preferred wave length of the instability mode corresponding to the instability mode with fastest (but finite) growth coefficient

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In this paper, we study the behavior of a fluid‐saturated fault under shear, based on the assumption that the material inside exhibits rate‐ and temperature‐dependent frictional behavior. A creeping fault of this type can produce excess heat due to shear heating, reaching temperatures which are high enough to trigger endothermic chemical reactions. We focus on fluid‐release reactions and incorporate excess pore pressure generation and porosity variations due to the chemical effects (a process called chemical pressurization). We provide the mathematical formulation for coupled thermo‐hydro‐chemo‐mechanical processes and study the influence of the frictional, hydraulic, and chemical properties of the material, along with the boundary conditions of the problem on the behavior of the fault. Regimes of stable‐frictional sliding and pressurization emerge, and the conditions for the appearance of periodic creep‐to‐pressurization instabilities are then derived. The model thus extends the classical mechanical stick‐slip instabilities by identifying chemical pressurization as the process governing the slip phase. The different stability regimes identified match the geological observations about subduction zones. The model presented was specifically tested in the Episodic Tremor and Slip sequence of the Cascadia megathrust, reproducing the displacement data available from the GPS network installed. Through this process, we identify that the slow slip events in Cascadia could be due to the in situ dehydration of serpentinite minerals. During this process, the fluid pressures increase to sublithostatic values and lead to the weakening of the creeping slab.

Geoscientists are confronted with the challenge of assessing nonlinear phenomena that result from multiphysics coupling across multiple scales from the quantum level to the scale of the earth and from femtosecond to the 4.5 Ga of history of our planet. We neglect in this review electromagnetic modelling of the processes in the Earth's core, and focus on four types of couplings that underpin fundamental instabilities in the Earth. These are thermal (T), hydraulic (H), mechanical (M) and chemical (C) processes which are driven and controlled by the transfer of heat to the Earth's surface. Instabilities appear as faults, folds, compaction bands, shear/fault zones, plate boundaries and convective patterns. Convective patterns emerge from buoyancy overcoming viscous drag at a critical Rayleigh number. All other processes emerge from non-conservative thermodynamic forces with a critical critical dissipative source term, which can be characterised by the modified Gruntfest number Gr. These dissipative processes reach a quasi-steady state when, at maximum dissipation, THMC diffusion (Fourier, Darcy, Biot, Fick) balance the source term. The emerging steady state dissipative patterns are defined by the respective diffusion length scales. These length scales provide a fundamental thermodynamic yardstick for measuring instabilities in the Earth. The implementation of a fully coupled THMC multiscale theoretical framework into an applied workflow is still in its early stages. This is largely owing to the four fundamentally different lengths of the THMC diffusion yardsticks spanning micro-metre to tens of kilometres compounded by the additional necessity to consider microstructure information in the formulation of enriched continua for THMC feedback simulations (i.e., micro-structure enriched continuum formulation). Another challenge is to consider the important factor time which implies that the geomaterial often is very far away from initial yield and flowing on a time scale that cannot be accessed in the laboratory. This leads to the requirement of adopting a thermodynamic framework in conjunction with flow theories of plasticity. This framework allows, unlike consistency plasticity, the description of both solid mechanical and fluid dynamic instabilities. In the applications we show the similarity of THMC feedback patterns across scales such as brittle and ductile folds and faults.