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Wildfire danger is often ascribed to increased temperature, decreased humidity, drier fuels, or higher wind speed. However, the concurrence of drivers—defined as climate, meteorological and biophysical factors that enable fire growth—is rarely tested for commonly used fire danger indices or climate change studies. Treating causal factors as independent additive influences can lead to inaccurate inferences about shifting hazards if the factors interact as a series of switches that collectively modulate fire growth. As evidence, we show that in Southern California very large fires and ‘megafires’ are more strongly associated with multiple drivers exceeding moderate thresholds concurrently, rather than direct relationships with extreme magnitudes of individual drivers or additive combinations of those drivers. Days with concurrent fire drivers exceeding thresholds have increased more rapidly over the past four decades than individual drivers, leading to a tripling of annual ‘megafire critical danger days’. Assessments of changing wildfire risks should explicitly address concurrence of fire drivers to provide a more precise assessment of this hazard in the face of a changing climate.

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Optimization-based deployment of contamination warning system in water distribution systems has been widely used in the literature, due to their superior performance compared to rule- and opinion-based approaches. However, optimization techniques impose an excessive computational burden, which in turn is compensated for by shrinking the problem's decision space and/or using faster optimization algorithms with less accuracy. This imposes subjectivity in interpretation of the system and associated risks, and undermines model's accuracy by not exploring the entire feasible space. We propose a framework that uses information theoretic techniques, including value of information and transinformation entropy, for optimal sensor placement. This can be used either as pre-selection, i.e. pinpointing best potential locations of sensors to be in turn used in optimization framework, or ultimate selection, i.e. single-handedly selecting sensor locations from the feasible space. The proposed framework is then applied to Lamerd water distribution system, in Fars province, Iran, and the results are compared to the suggested potential locations of sensors in previous studies and results of TEVA-SPOT model. The proposed information theoretic scheme enhances the decision space, provides more accurate results, significantly reduces the computational burden, and warrants objective selection of sensor placement.

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