A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

Khorshidi, Majid Akbarzadeh; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Sadegh, Mojtaba; Nematollahi, Banafsheh

doi:10.1007/s11269-019-02223-w

Cited by 35 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The LARS-WG can achieve a similar performance to other sophisticated models for site-scale temperature and precipitation estimations [28,29,30]. It is able to generate long synthetic series of daily weather data under various climate change scenarios, and can be adopted with confidence for climate change impact studies together with the watershed model for hydrological and sedimental estimations [31,32].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Sha

Zhao

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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This study concerned the sediment issue of the Yellow River basin. The responses of hydrological and sedimental processes to future climate change in two upland watersheds with different dominant landscapes were estimated. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with different radiative forcing levels were considered. The outputs of eleven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used to represent the future climate status of the 2050s and 2070s, and an ensemble means was achieved to avoid uncertainty. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed to downscale the outputs of GCMs for future site-scale daily weather data estimations. The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model was employed to model the streamflow and sediment yields under various scenarios and periods. The results showed that there would be generally hotter and wetter weather conditions in the future. Increased erosion and sediment yields could be found in the study area, with lesser increments in sediment in woodland than in cultivated field. The peak of sediment would appear in the 2050s, and integrated measures for sediment control should be implemented to reduce erosion and block delivery. The multi-model approach proposed in this study had reliable performance and could be applied in other similar areas with modest data conditions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Sha

Zhao

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…They also developed three scenarios to diminish the fixed charges and increase the volumetric charges. Khorshidi et al (2019) fostered a Leader-Follower Game (LFG) based on multi-objective optimization model to determine the optimum 12-month operation policy of a reservoir in potential future dry periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Dispute Settlement of Reservoir In View of the Water Quality Issues: A Novel Hybrid Group Game Theory-Fuzzy Logic Approach

Mahmoudi

Shirangi

2021

Preprint

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To choose the best policy of the water resources allocation, considering both the quantitative and qualitative factors based on the possible uncertainties, there has always been a significant problem in the dry lands from perspectives of the decision makers. In this paper, using Game Theory concept, a novel hybrid approach of the Game Theory based fuzzy logic is proposed to reconcile conflicts among stakeholders of dam reservoirs who have their own different strategies and utilities to choose the best policy in order to gain the highest profit regarding the situations they deal with. In the proposed method, after the fuzzification of decision makers’ strategies, a matrix called a “priority matrix” is formed in which a combination of their strategies and priorities is presented as the matrix elements. Based on the concept of Nash equilibrium, an optimized scenario is elected from among the bargaining scenarios constructed via the integrated strategies. This method has the privilege of providing a game space in which a large variety of strategies and priorities of many decision makers can be modeled in a fuzzy space of variables to reach a point of agreement. In this study, the 15-Khordad Dam of Iran is selected as a case study area which faces problems such as salinity, low quality water, and conflicts among stakeholders. The results of the study indicated that the proposed method could be led to an optimized strategy for the water resources allocation.

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“…Relative to the total revenue generated by the operation of independent reservoirs, synergistic benefits can be achieved through the coordinated operation of cascade reservoirs [7]. Generally, the main objective of cascade reservoirs is to maximize energy and revenue yields [8,9]. However, this strategy has an adverse impact on downstream river ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an Optimal Model for the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba Cascade Reservoir System Considering the Downstream Environmental Flow

Dai

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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To explore the influence of the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoir system on the appropriate environmental flow (AEF) of the Jinsha River, a multiobjective optimal cascade reservoir model was established with the aim of maximizing power generation while minimizing the downstream degree of AEF alteration. The AEF was determined using the range of variability approach (RVA). The optimal model was solved using an improved version of NSGA-II called INSGA2-DS. Inflows in typical normal and dry years were selected for optimization. The results show that in a normal year, power generation can be increased by 1.28% compared with that under the current regular operation conditions by prioritizing the maximization of power generation, in which case the degree of AEF alteration will increase by 13.86%. In contrast, the degree of AEF alteration will decrease by 22.53% if ecological protection is prioritized, but power generation will decrease by 0.62%. Similarly, in a dry year, power generation can be increased by 1.76% compared with that under the current regular operation conditions to maximize economic benefit, in which case, the degree of AEF alteration will increase by 4.95%. By contrast, the degree of AEF alteration can be decreased by 13.70% if the objective is AEF minimization, but power generation will decrease by 0.48%. These research results provide useful information for the formulation of ecological operation schemes involving cascade reservoirs on the Jinsha River.

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A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

Cited by 35 publications

References 25 publications

Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Modeling the Dispute Settlement of Reservoir In View of the Water Quality Issues: A Novel Hybrid Group Game Theory-Fuzzy Logic Approach

Development of an Optimal Model for the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba Cascade Reservoir System Considering the Downstream Environmental Flow

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