In this contribution, we calibrate the meteorological model weather and research forecasting (WRF) for operational forecasting in the Port of Huelva managed by the Authority Port of Huelva. Meteorological forecasting will allow reducing the impact of the meteorological phenomena over weather sensitive activities in the region. Concretely, the meteorological modeling developed will be used to analyze meteorological hazard impacts and to improve the management of the local air quality. To achieve these goals, numerous sensitive analyses corresponding to different model options have been developed. These analyses consider different physical and dynamical options, the coupling of very high resolution physiographic database (topography and land uses), and data assimilation. Comparing experiments, results with observational measures provide us by the Spanish National Meteorology Agency (AEMET). During a representative period, the optimum WRF configuration for the region is obtained. Calibration has been focused on wind due to this is the main risk factor in the region. When the model is satisfactorily calibrated, WRF is evaluated using whole modeling years 2012 and 2013, working with very high horizontal resolution, up to 0.333 km of horizontal grid resolution. Results obtained from the evaluation indicate that the numerical weather prediction system developed has a confidence level of 70% for the temperature, 81% and 66% for the wind speed and wind direction respectively, and 90% for the relative humidity. Methodology designed defines the quality control assurance of high-accuracy forecasting services of Meteosim S.L. R. Arasa et al.330
Although compliance with the European limit values for air pollutants has been achieved over large parts in Spain, some challenges remain for O 3 on the maximum daily 8-hour mean and information limit values, for particulate matter on the PM 10 annual and daily limit values and for NO 2 on annual and hourly limit values. Transboundary transport of air pollutants has started to be recognized as a mechanism affecting air quality. Nevertheless, as a consequence of the complexity of atmospheric chemistry it is not easy to determine the importance of this effect. Photochemical models constitute an adequate tool to address this challenge, allowing the identification of pollutant pathways and the quantification of the influence of long-range transport of air pollutants. In this paper we evaluate the influence of out-of-Spain emissions on this non-compliance picture by using the CHIMERE photochemical model. For this purpose the model was run at a 0.2˚-horizontal resolution for a European domain. Although at this resolution not all the local effects can be captured, transboundary transport of air pollutants can be examined. Several simulations were performed considering different emission scenarios. To see all out-of-Spain emissions influence, all the emissions were set to zero, excepting those in Spain. This includes examining European and ships effects on air quality in Spain. A second simulation was performed setting to zero just European-countries emissions, to see the effect of Europe. The third and fourth simulations were carried out by setting to zero France and Portugal emissions respectively. Ozone has been found to be the pollutant more affected by this transboundary transport, in particular in the summer period. The model indicates that the incoming air masses contributed in 2009 to the non-compliance with the European normative regulating the maximum daily 8-hour mean.
The present study has generated and analyzed Climate Change projections in Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040. The obtained results are to be used for evaluating and planning more resilient transport infrastructures in the next decades. This study has focused its efforts to pay attention into the effect of Climate Change on precipitation and temperature from a mean and extreme event perspective. Dynamical Downscaling approach on a 4 km resolution grid has been chosen as the most appropriate methodology for the estimation of the projected climate, being able to account for local-scale factors like complex topography or local land uses properly. We selected MPI-ESM-MR as the global climate model with the best skill scores in terms of precipitation and temperature in Nicaragua. MPI-ESM-MR was coupled to a mesoscale model. We chose WRF mesoescale model as the most appropriate regional model and we optimized their physical and dynamical options in order to minimize the model uncertainty in Nicaragua. For this, model output against the available in-situ measurements from the national meteorological station network and satellite data were compared. Climate 446served. Moreover, an increment between 5% and 10% of the number of days without precipitation is expected. Finally, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) projected curves show an increment of the rainfall intensity and an increment of extreme precipitation event frequency, especially in the Caribbean basin.
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