Assessment of Climate Change in Nicaragua: Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature by Dynamical Downscaling over a 30-Year Horizon

Abstract

The present study has generated and analyzed Climate Change projections in Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040. The obtained results are to be used for evaluating and planning more resilient transport infrastructures in the next decades. This study has focused its efforts to pay attention into the effect of Climate Change on precipitation and temperature from a mean and extreme event perspective. Dynamical Downscaling approach on a 4 km resolution grid has been chosen as the most appropriate methodology for the estimation of the projected climate, being able to account for local-scale factors like complex topography or local land uses properly. We selected MPI-ESM-MR as the global climate model with the best skill scores in terms of precipitation and temperature in Nicaragua. MPI-ESM-MR was coupled to a mesoscale model. We chose WRF mesoescale model as the most appropriate regional model and we optimized their physical and dynamical options in order to minimize the model uncertainty in Nicaragua. For this, model output against the available in-situ measurements from the national meteorological station network and satellite data were compared. Climate 446served. Moreover, an increment between 5% and 10% of the number of days without precipitation is expected. Finally, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) projected curves show an increment of the rainfall intensity and an increment of extreme precipitation event frequency, especially in the Caribbean basin.

Late Holocene Oxygen Isotope Record of Hydroclimate Variability in Nicaragua From Lake Asososca

“…Over 3.5 million people in the dry corridor of Central America are in need of humanitarian assistance due to drought, with 1.6 million people not having a secure food source (FAO, 2016). Central American is projected to receive less precipitation due to the increase of very dry seasons in the next century (Fuentes-Franco et al, 2015;Solé et al, 2010). As alterations in climate continue to impact water resources, identifying and understanding potential drivers is crucial (IPCC, 2013).…”