Why do some Hispanic-Americans support ( Vente) and others oppose ( Quedate) the liberalization of immigration policies?1 In this study we attempt to ascertain which combination of demographic, attitudinal, and contextual factors determines Hispanic public opinion toward legal im migration. In a departure from previous research, we conduct an advanced multivariate analysis and utilize an existing national-level sample of His panics. While we find only limited evidence that Hispanic public opinion on immigration varies among nationalistic subgroups (e.g., Cuban-Ameri cans, Mexican-Americans, etc.), we do find that level of acculturation and perceived economic threat influence Hispanic opinion on legal im migration. We also find that Hispanics residing in areas with large illegal migrant populations, and those with more negative attitudes toward the impact of Hispanics on American society, tend to favor more restrictive immigration policies. Finally, we examine the implications of these find ings for future studies of public opinion toward immigration and for the development of immigration policy
In this paper, we introduce a recently developed methodology for assessing the assumption of causal homogeneity in a time series cross-section Granger framework. Following a description of the procedure and the analytical contexts for which it is appropriate, we implement this new approach to examine the transformation of the post-World War II party system in the South. Specifically, we analyze the causal relationship between black mobilization and GOP growth in the region. We find that black mobilization Granger caused Republican growth throughout the South, whereas Republican growth Granger caused black mobilization only in the deep South. We discuss the substantive significance of our results and conclude with guidelines for the appropriate use of this procedure and suggestions for future extensions of the method.
Objectives. Political science long ignored the actual mechanics of voting-until the 2000 presidential contest. This research note offers a systematic empirical inquiry into the potential effects of various voting methods and electorate-specific variables on the rate at which citizens register a preference via the act of voting. Methods. Voting methods were analyzed in relation to the rate of undervotes recorded in Georgia's 159 counties during the 2000 general election using a set of multivariate models. Results. Lever machines and fill in the oval optical scan ballots are associated with lower rates of undervoting. Counties with large numbers of new registrants, lower education levels, and a higher proportion of African-American voters were found to have higher error rates. Conclusions. The results of this study provide strong evidence that voting methods and ballot types, as well as electorate-specific characteristics, are key factors in determining the error rate associated with the process of voting at the county level.The 2000 recount in Florida riveted national attention for weeks on problems associated with the casting and counting of votes. The intensive investigation in Florida revealed that failure to register a clear preference by those who intend to cast a ballot may result either from voter confusion or problems with the apparatus used to conduct elections. A third alleged cause of voting problems was racial discrimination as a result of failure to provide assistance to minority voters. Diagnosing the nature of the problem is essential if obstacles to the voting process are to be eliminated. To the extent that voters wishing to register a choice are thwarted because of equipment problems, acquisition of more reliable or more easily operated election systems may remedy the problem. If, however, failure to register a choice stems from voter confusion, the solution may involve voters acquiring greater familiarity with the process. If minority voters are especially likely to confront problems, a more hospitable environment may eliminate racial disparities.
Voter identification (ID) policies, especially those of the photo ID variety, have been hotly contested over the last few years. The primary concern surrounding these statutes amounts to lower turnout, especially among certain groups in the electorate, such as racial/ethnic minorities. In 2007, the way was cleared for Georgia to implement a new statute requiring registrants to present a government-issued photo ID to vote. Using population data on registrants from two election cycles coupled with information on a subgroup of registrants known to lack photo ID, we conduct a policy impact analysis of the Georgia voter ID law. We find that the new law did produce a suppression effect among those registrants lacking proper ID. Substantively, the law lowered turnout by about four-tenths of a percentage point in 2008. However, we find no empirical evidence to suggest that there is a racial or ethnic component to this suppression effect.
Following the problems with presidential voting in Florida in 2000, voters and political scientists became interested in election administration. While empirical studies have shown that different election equipment can produce different tabulation error rates, little is known about the factors that affect voters' perceptions of good election administration. Using a survey of voters in Georgia, we examine these perceptions of the voting process. We find that black voters and Democrats were significantly less confident than others that their votes were counted accurately and that they were also more likely to express concerns over the election equipment they used. In contrast, the actual voting environment, including the type of voting equipment used, appears to have no direct bearing on voters' trust in the process.
Objective. We make use of individual-level survey data from the 2006 midterm election in order to determine the degree to which redistricting affected the vote choice of whites residing in Georgia Congressional Districts 8 and 12. Methods. A multivariate probit model was used to assess the probability of voting for the GOP House candidate among voters represented by the same incumbent before and after redistricting versus voters who had been newly drawn into one of these districts. Results. Despite a national tide that favored the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections, redrawn whites were more likely to vote for the Republican challengers in the districts surveyed. Conclusions. Our findings indicate that redistricting can be used to dampen the incumbency advantage. In addition, the findings of this research also speak to the continuing Republican realignment of white voters in the Deep South and to the recognition that the effects of redistricting are dependent on political context.
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