Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades1, 2, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics3, particularly in the Amazon4. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity5. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale1, 2, and is contrary to expectations based on models. (Résumé d'auteur

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (<i>H</i>). We estimate the effect of incorporating <i>H</i> on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 <i>H</i> and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: <br><br> 1. What is the best <i>H</i>-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? <br><br> 2. To what extent does including <i>H</i> estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? <br><br> 3. What effect does accounting for <i>H</i> have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? <br><br> The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including <i>H</i> (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding <i>H</i> (mean 0.13). Power- and Weibull-<i>H</i> models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-<i>H</i> models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (&le;40 cm <i>D</i>) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including <i>H</i> reduces errors from 41.8 Mg ha⁻¹ (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha⁻¹ (−2.5 to 23.0). For all plots, aboveground live biomass was −52.2 Mg ha⁻¹ (−82.0 to −20.3 bootstrapped 95% CI), or 13%, lower when including <i>H</i> estimates, with the greatest relative reductions in estimated biomass in forests of the Brazilian Shield, east Africa, and Australia, and relatively little change in the Guiana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. Appreciably different stand structure was observed among regions across the tropical continents, with some storing significantly more biomass in small diameter stems, which affects selection of the best height models to reduce uncertainty and biomass reductions due to <i>H</i>. After accounting for variation in <i>H</i>, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guiana Shield, Asia, central and east Africa, and lowest in east-central Amazonia, W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if tropical forests span 1668 million km² and store 285 Pg C (estimate including <i>H</i>), then applying our regional relationships implies that carbon storage is overestimated by 35 Pg C (31–39 bootstrapped 95% CI) if <i>H</i> is ignored, assuming that the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height ...

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Abstract. Through interpretations of remote-sensing data and/or theoretical propositions, the idea that forest and savanna represent "alternative stable states" is gaining increasing acceptance. Filling an observational gap, we present detailed stratified floristic and structural analyses for forest and savanna stands located mostly within zones of transition (where both vegetation types occur in close proximity) in Africa, South America and Australia. Woody plant leaf area index variation was related to tree canopy cover in a similar way for both savanna and forest with substantial overlap between the two vegetation types. As total woody plant canopy cover increased, so did the relative contribution of middle and lower strata of woody vegetation. Herbaceous layer cover declined as woody cover increased. This pattern of understorey grasses and herbs progressively replaced by shrubs as the canopy closes over was found for both savanna and forests and on all continents. Thus, once subordinate woody canopy layers are taken into account, a less marked transition in woody plant cover across the savanna–forest-species discontinuum is observed compared to that inferred when trees of a basal diameter > 0.1 m are considered in isolation. This is especially the case for shrub-dominated savannas and in taller savannas approaching canopy closure. An increased contribution of forest species to the total subordinate cover is also observed as savanna stand canopy closure occurs. Despite similarities in canopy-cover characteristics, woody vegetation in Africa and Australia attained greater heights and stored a greater amount of above-ground biomass than in South America. Up to three times as much above-ground biomass is stored in forests compared to savannas under equivalent climatic conditions. Savanna–forest transition zones were also found to typically occur at higher precipitation regimes for South America than for Africa. Nevertheless, consistent across all three continents coexistence was found to be confined to a well-defined edaphic–climate envelope with soil and climate the key determinants of the relative location of forest and savanna stands. Moreover, when considered in conjunction with the appropriate water availability metrics, it emerges that soil exchangeable cations exert considerable control on woody canopy-cover extent as measured in our pan-continental (forest + savanna) data set. Taken together these observations do not lend support to the notion of alternate stable states mediated through fire feedbacks as the prime force shaping the distribution of the two dominant vegetation types of the tropical lands.

We assessed data from 11 experiments examining the effects of the timing and/or frequency of fire on tropical forest and/or savanna vegetation structure over one decade or more. The initial 'control treatment' in many such cases consisted of previously cleared land. This is as opposed to natural vegetation subject to some sort of endogenous fire regime before the imposition of fire treatments. Effects of fire on fractional foliar cover are up to 10-fold greater when clearing pre-treatments are imposed. Moreover, because many of the 'classic' fire trials were initialised with applied management questions in mind, most have also used burning regimes much more frequent and/or severe than those occurring in the absence of human activity. Once these factors are taken into account, our modelling analysis shows that nonanthropogenic fire regimes serve to reduce canopy vegetative cover to a much lower extent than has previously been argued to be the case. These results call into question the notion that fire effects on tropical vegetation can be of a sufficient magnitude to maintain open-type savanna ecosystems under climatic/soil regimes otherwise sufficient to give rise to a more luxurious forest-type vegetation cover.

Above-ground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height. We estimate the effect of incorporating height (<i>H</i>) on forest biomass estimates using 37 625 concomitant <i>H</i> and diameter measurements (<i>n</i> = 327 plots) and 1816 harvested trees (<i>n</i> = 21 plots) tropics-wide to answer the following questions: <br><br> 1. For trees of known biomass (from destructive harvests) which <i>H</i>-model form and geographic scale (plot, region, and continent) most reduces biomass estimate uncertainty? <br><br> 2. How much does including <i>H</i> relationship estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across 327 plots spanning four continents? <br><br> 3. What effect does the inclusion of <i>H</i> in biomass estimates have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? <br><br> The mean relative error in biomass estimates of the destructively harvested trees was half (mean 0.06) when including <i>H</i>, compared to excluding <i>H</i> (mean 0.13). The power- and Weibull-<i>H</i> asymptotic model provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with the regional Weibull-<i>H</i> model preferred because it reduces uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes that contain the bulk of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows errors are reduced from 41.8 Mg ha⁻¹ (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0 Mg ha⁻¹ (−2.5 to 23.0) when including $H$. For all plots, above-ground live biomass was 52.2±17.3 Mg ha⁻¹ lower when including <i>H</i> estimates (13%), with the greatest reductions in estimated biomass in Brazilian Shield forests and relatively no change in the Guyana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. We show fundamentally different stand structure across the four forested tropical continents, which affects biomass reductions due to $H$. African forests store a greater portion of total biomass in large-diameter trees and trees are on average larger in diameter. This contrasts to forests on all other continents where smaller-diameter trees contain the greatest fractions of total biomass. After accounting for variation in $H$, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guyana Shield, and Asia and lowest in W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if closed canopy tropical forests span 1668 million km² and store 285 Pg C, then the overestimate is 35 Pg C if <i>H</i> is ignored, and the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height factors. Our results show that tree $H$ is an important allometric factor that needs to be included in future forest...

Abstract. Sampling along a precipitation gradient in tropical America extending from ca. 0.8 to 2.0 m a−1, savanna soils had consistently lower exchangeable cation concentrations and higher C/N ratios than nearby forest plots. These soil differences were also reflected in canopy averaged leaf traits with savanna trees typically having higher leaf mass per unit area but lower mass-based nitrogen (Nm) and potassium (Km). Both Nm and Km also increased with declining mean annual precipitation (PA), but most area-based leaf traits such as leaf photosynthetic capacity showed no systematic variation with PA or vegetation type. Despite this invariance, when taken in conjunction with other measures such mean canopy height, area-based soil exchangeable potassium content, [K]sa, proved to be an excellent predictor of several photosynthetic properties (including 13C isotope discrimination). Moreover, when considered in a multivariate context with PA and soil plant available water storage capacity (θP) as covariates, [K]sa also proved to be an excellent predictor of stand-level canopy area, providing drastically improved fits as compared to models considering just PA and/or θP. Neither calcium, magnesium nor soil pH could substitute for potassium when tested as alternative model predictors (ΔAIC > 10). Nor for any model could simple soil texture metrics such as sand or clay content substitute for either [K]sa or θP. Taken in conjunction with recent work in Africa and the forests of the Amazon Basin this suggests – in combination with some newly conceptualised interacting effects of PA and θP also presented here – a critical role for potassium as a modulator of tropical vegetation structure and function.

Sampling along a precipitation gradient in tropical America extending from ca. 0.8 to 2.0 m a−1, savanna soils had consistently lower exchangeable cation concentrations and higher C/N ratios than nearby forest plots. These soil differences were also reflected in canopy averaged leaf traits with savanna trees typically having higher leaf mass per unit area but lower mass-based nitrogen (Nm) and potassium (Km). Both Nm and Km also increased with declining mean annual precipitation (PA), but most area-based leaf traits such as leaf photosynthetic capacity showed no systematic variation with PA or vegetation type. Despite this invariance, when taken in conjunction with other measures such mean canopy height, area-based soil exchangeable potassium content, [K]sa, proved to be an excellent predictor of several photosynthetic properties (including 13C isotope discrimination). Moreover, when considered in a multivariate context with PA and soil plant available water storage capacity (θP) as covariates, [K]sa also proved to be an excellent predictor of stand-level canopy area, providing drastically improved fits as compared to models considering just PA and/or θP. Neither calcium, magnesium nor soil pH could substitute for potassium when tested as alternative model predictors (ΔAIC > 10). Nor for any model could simple soil texture metrics such as sand or clay content substitute for either [K]sa or θP. Taken in conjunction with recent work in Africa and the forests of the Amazon Basin this suggests – in combination with some newly conceptualised interacting effects of PA and θP also presented here – a critical role for potassium as a modulator of tropical vegetation structure and function