Objective
To compare validity of a parsimonious frailty index (components: weight loss, inability to rise from a chair, and poor energy [SOF index]) with that of the more complex CHS index (components: unintentional weight loss, low grip strength, poor energy, slowness, and low physical activity) for prediction of adverse outcomes in older men.
Design
Prospective cohort study
Setting
Six U.S. centers
Participants
3132 men ≥67 years
Measurements
Men classified as robust, intermediate stage or frail using SOF index and criteria similar to those used in CHS index. Falls reported tri-annually for 1 year. Disability (≥1 new impairment in performing IADL) ascertained at 1 year. Fractures and deaths ascertained during 3 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared for models containing SOF index versus CHS index.
Results
Greater evidence of frailty as defined by either index was associated with increased risks of adverse outcomes. Frail men had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio [OR] 3.0–3.6), disability (OR 5.3–7.5), nonspine fracture (hazards ratio [HR] 2.2–2.3), and death (HR 2.5–3.5) (P<0.001 for all models). AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with SOF index versus models with CHS index in discriminating falls (AUC=0.63, P= 0.97), disability (AUC=0.68, P=0.86), nonspine fracture (AUC=0.63, P=0.90), or death (AUC=0.71 for model with SOF index and 0.72 for model with CHS index, P=0.19).
Conclusion
The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture and mortality in men as well as the more complex CHS index.
The authors investigated the relations of demographic, anthropometric, and lifestyle factors with endometriosis in the Nurses' Health Study II prospective cohort. During 10 years of follow-up (1989-1999), 1,721 cases of laparoscopically confirmed endometriosis were reported among women with no past infertility. The incidence rate was greatest among women aged 25-29 years and lowest among women over 44 years (p(trend) < 0.0001). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, African-American women had a lower rate of disease compared with Caucasian women (rate ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.4, 0.9). The authors also observed an inverse relation with body mass index at age 18 years (for body mass index of >30 vs. 19-20.4 kg/m(2): rate ratio = 0.8, 95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.1; p(trend) = 0.004) and with current alcohol intake (for >10 vs. 0 g/day: rate ratio = 0.7, 95% confidence interval: 0.6, 0.8; p(trend) < 0.0001) but no association with height, waist/hip ratio, or caffeine intake. An inverse relation with current body mass index and current cigarette smoking was observed only when cases were concurrently infertile. The authors conclude that age, race, body mass index, alcohol use, and cigarette smoking are associated with the incidence of endometriosis and that some of these relations may differ by infertility status at the time of laparoscopic diagnosis.
Low areal BMD (aBMD) is associated with increased risk of hip fracture, but many hip fractures occur in persons without low aBMD. Finite element (FE) analysis of QCT scans provides a measure of hip strength. We studied the association of FE measures with risk of hip fracture in older men. A prospective case-cohort study of all first hip fractures (n = 40) and a random sample (n = 210) of nonfracture cases from 3549 community-dwelling men !65 yr of age used baseline QCT scans of the hip (mean follow-up, 5.6 yr). Analyses included FE measures of strength and load-to-strength ratio and BMD by DXA. Hazard ratios (HRs) for hip fracture were estimated with proportional hazards regression. Both femoral strength (HR per SD change = 13.1; 95% CI: 3.9-43.5) and the load-to-strength ratio (HR = 4.0; 95% CI: 2.7-6.0) were strongly associated with hip fracture risk, as was aBMD as measured by DXA (HR = 5.1; 95% CI: 2.8-9.2). After adjusting for age, BMI, and study site, the associations remained significant (femoral strength HR = 6.5, 95% CI: 2.3-18.3; load-to-strength ratio HR = 4.3, 95% CI: 2.5-7.4; aBMD HR = 4.4, 95% CI: 2.1-9.1). When adjusted additionally for aBMD, the load-to-strength ratio remained significantly associated with fracture (HR = 3.1, 95% CI: 1.6-6.1). These results provide insight into hip fracture etiology and demonstrate the ability of FE-based biomechanical analysis of QCT scans to prospectively predict hip fractures in men.
The proportion of fractures that occur in women without osteoporosis has not been fully described, and the characteristics of nonosteoporotic women who fracture are not well understood. We measured total hip bone mineral density (BMD) and baseline characteristics including physical activity, falls, and strength for 8065 women aged 65 yr or older participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures and then followed these women for hip fracture for up to 5 yr after BMD measurement. Among all participants, 17% had osteoporosis (total hip BMD T-score < or = -2.5). Of the 243 women with incident hip fracture, 54% were not osteoporotic at start of follow-up. Nonosteoporotic women who fractured were less likely than osteoporotic women with fracture to have baseline characteristics associated with frailty. Nevertheless, among nonosteoporotic participants, several characteristics increased fracture risk, including advancing age, lack of exercise in the last year, reduced visual contrast sensitivity, falls in the last year, prevalent vertebral fracture, and lower total hip BMD. These findings call attention to the many older women who suffer hip fracture but do not have particularly low antecedent BMD measures and help begin to identify risk factors associated with higher bone density levels.
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