Background. A standard phenotype of frailty was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes including mortality in a recent study of older adults. However, the predictive validity of this phenotype for fracture outcomes and across risk subgroups is uncertain.

Objective To compare validity of a parsimonious frailty index (components: weight loss, inability to rise from a chair, and poor energy [SOF index]) with that of the more complex CHS index (components: unintentional weight loss, low grip strength, poor energy, slowness, and low physical activity) for prediction of adverse outcomes in older men. Design Prospective cohort study Setting Six U.S. centers Participants 3132 men ≥67 years Measurements Men classified as robust, intermediate stage or frail using SOF index and criteria similar to those used in CHS index. Falls reported tri-annually for 1 year. Disability (≥1 new impairment in performing IADL) ascertained at 1 year. Fractures and deaths ascertained during 3 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared for models containing SOF index versus CHS index. Results Greater evidence of frailty as defined by either index was associated with increased risks of adverse outcomes. Frail men had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio [OR] 3.0–3.6), disability (OR 5.3–7.5), nonspine fracture (hazards ratio [HR] 2.2–2.3), and death (HR 2.5–3.5) (P<0.001 for all models). AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with SOF index versus models with CHS index in discriminating falls (AUC=0.63, P= 0.97), disability (AUC=0.68, P=0.86), nonspine fracture (AUC=0.63, P=0.90), or death (AUC=0.71 for model with SOF index and 0.72 for model with CHS index, P=0.19). Conclusion The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture and mortality in men as well as the more complex CHS index.

We used data from the Fracture Intervention Trial to assess the relationship change in bone turnover after 1 year of alendronate or placebo treatment and subsequent hip, non-spine, and spine fracture risk among 6186 postmenopausal women. In the alendronate group (n ‫؍‬ 3105), greater reductions in one or more biochemical marker were associated with a lower risk of fracture.Introduction: There are few data on the relationship between short-term change in biochemical markers of bone turnover and non-spine fracture risk among bisphosphonate-treated women, and the clinical use of such measurements is unknown. Materials and Methods:We measured biochemical markers of bone turnover (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP], intact N-terminal propeptide of type I collagen, and C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide of type 1 collagen) and BMD of the spine and hip at baseline and after 1 year of alendronate or placebo. During a mean follow-up of 3.6 years, 72 hip, 786 non-spine, and 336 vertebral fractures were documented. Results and Conclusions: Each 1 SD reduction in 1-year change in bone ALP was associated with fewer spine (odds ratio ϭ 0.74; CI: 0.63, 0.87), non-spine (relative hazard [RH] ϭ 0.89; CI: 0.78, 1.00; p Ͻ 0.050), and hip fractures (RH ϭ 0.61; CI: 0.46, 0.78). Alendronate-treated women with at least a 30% reduction in bone ALP had a lower risk of non-spine (RH ϭ 0.72; CI: 0.55, 0.92) and hip fractures (RH ϭ 0.26; CI: 0.08, 0.83) relative to those with reductions Ͻ30%. We conclude that greater reductions in bone turnover with alendronate therapy are associated with fewer hip, non-spine, and vertebral fractures, and the effect is at least as strong as that observed with 1-year change in BMD.