Nonviolent movements are more successful when mobilizing large and diverse numbers of participants. However, while there has been considerable research on the outcomes of nonviolent campaigns, far less is known about the initial emergence of nonviolent action. A growing literature suggests ethnic divisions may undermine the ability of activists to engage in mass nonviolent mobilization across diverse social lines. Yet many large and diverse nonviolent movements have successfully emerged in various ethnically divided societies across the world. I argue that nonviolent mobilization is made possible in ethnically polarized contexts when broader cross-cutting grievances are present as they enable local activists to widen their appeal across social lines. I focus on food price spikes as an example of a cross-cutting issue that is likely to affect consumers from different ethnic groups. The unique and symbolic nature of food price spikes facilitates nonviolent mobilization across ethnic lines and provides clear short-term incentives for many people to participate in protests against the government. Using new spatially disaggregated data on government targeted nonviolent action, I analyse grid-cell years across 41 African countries (1990–2008). I find strong evidence that food price spikes increase the likelihood of nonviolent action in politically excluded and ethnically diverse locations.
Research on the relationship between nonviolent and violent dissent has focused on explicit shifts in organized strategies, disregarding less-organized forms of violence such as riots. Even though disorganized violence is common, we know little about how it influences the onset and fate of antigovernment nonviolent campaigns. Activists frequently argue that nonviolent discipline is essential and disorganized violence is counterproductive for effective large-scale mobilization. However, others emphasize how disorganized violence could have a mobilizing effect on large-scale protest and revitalize a nonviolent campaign. We detail these competing perspectives on how riots can influence the onset and outcomes of nonviolent campaigns. We then evaluate these contending claims empirically by examining how riots affect the initial emergence of nonviolent campaigns and the likelihood that campaigns will terminate. We find that nonviolent mobilization is less likely to emerge after riots, and ongoing campaigns are more likely to collapse under higher rates of rioting.
Ethnic riots are sporadic and localized incidents of low-intensity violence, with civilians from one ethnic group engaging in vicious attacks on a rival ethnic group. While systematic research on ethnic violence has almost exclusively focused on organized armed conflict, comparably little quantitative research has considered the causes of low-intensity ethnic violence. Building on existing case-based research on inequality and ethnic riots, this article argues that ethnic rioting can be explained by collective motivations for group violence that emerge from highly unequal local ethno-political configurations, where politically dominant groups coexist with groups that are discriminated or have recently lost political power. To test this argument, the article deploys a spatially disaggregated analysis of all African states between 1990 and 2008, combining new dyadic data capturing the location of ethnic riots with disaggregated grid-level data on ethno-political representation. I find ethnic riots are more likely to occur in discriminated group areas, in locations where a group has recently lost political representation and where such groups live in close proximity of politically dominant groups.
Existing research reveals many of the ways pro-government militia (PGM) shape civil violence but overlooks how the ethno-political ties between the state and a PGM might influence these effects. We argue that co-ethnic militia (i.e., groups composed of the ruling elite’s ethnic kin) are relatively loyal irregular forces that multiply state military capacity. The greater loyalty of co-ethnic groups mitigates principal–agent problems but further polarizes ethnic communities, and as a result, co-ethnic PGMs are likely to be associated with longer and more intense civil conflict. We test this argument on a global sample of cases from 1989 to 2007 using new data capturing the ethnic ties of all PGMs. The results support our claims that co-ethnic militia are associated with more intense and longer civil conflict.
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