Summary• Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies.• Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras.• We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (± 4.0 vs 4.8°C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence.• Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships.

The utility of regression and correspondence models for deducing climate from leaf physiognomy was evaluated by the comparative application of different predictive models to the same three leaf assemblages. Mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and growing season precipitation (GSP) were estimated from the morphological characteristics of samples of living leaves from two extant forests and an assemblage of fossil leaves. The extant forests are located near Gainesville, Florida, and in the Florida Keys; the fossils were collected from the Eocene Clarno Nut Beds, Oregon. Simple linear regression (SLR), multiple linear regression (MLR), and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to estimate temperature and precipitation. The SLR models used only the percentage of species having entire leaf margins as a predictor for MAT and leaf size as a predictor for MAP. The MLR models used from two to six leaf characters as predictors, and the CCA used 31 characters. In comparisons between actual and predicted values for the extant forests, errors in prediction of MAT were 0.6°-5.7°C, and errors in prediction of precipitation were 6-89 cm (=6-66%). At the Gainesville site, seven models underestimated MAT and only one overestimated it, whereas at the Keys site, all eight models overestimated MAT. Precipitation was overestimated by all four models at Gainesville, and by three of them at the Keys. The MAT estimates from the Clarno leaf assemblage ranged from 14.3° to 18.8°C, and the precipitation estimates from 227 to 363 cm for MAP and from 195 to 295 cm for GSP.

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AimThe relationship between the proportion of species with an entire leaf margin (pE) and mean annual temperature (MAT) is one of the most powerful tools for estimating palaeotemperatures. However, phylogenetic and phytogeographic constraints on this relationship have remained unexplored. Here we investigate the pE-MAT relationship for modern floristic assemblages from southern South American forests, assess its conformity to other models and test for the existence of historical constraints on pE-MAT models. Location South America.Methods We used samples from 30 sites located in Chile between 32°and 44°S to test for a pE-MAT relationship and compared it with four regional models. We assessed the reliability of these models for predicting MAT from instrumental records in eight modern temperate-forest localities in Chile. Additionally, palaeotemperatures for Cenozoic fossil floras were estimated. To assess historical constraints in pE, we measured the phylogenetic signal in leaf margin type and the association between leaf margin and phytogeographic affiliation, defined by the distribution of genera. ResultsWe found a significant pE-MAT relationship for Chilean forest species that differed from Australia and Northern Hemisphere models, but not from tropical South America (TSA). Temperatures for southern South American localities predicted from the new regional model -combining Chilean and TSA datasetswere more accurate than those from previous models. We also showed that leaf margin type has a strong phylogenetic signal, which was further confirmed by the highly significant effect of phytogeographic element on leaf margin type. Main conclusionsDifferences between the Chilean and other regional models are explained by historical legacy, as Chilean leaf margin types are strongly affected by phylogenetic closeness and phytogeographic elements. We highlight that leaf margin analyses should be conducted within the context of a flora with a shared history. Thus, we propose a new model for South America to estimate palaeotemperatures for regional fossil floras.

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Aim We ask whether contemporary forests of the Chilean Coastal Range can be considered to be direct and conservative descendants of pre-Pleistocene palaeofloras that occurred in southern South America from the Palaeogene to early Neogene periods (65-10 Ma), maintaining foliar physiognomies that do not match their present-day climate. We also identify the most likely ancestors of present-day coastal forests.

ABSTRACT. The age of the Navidad Formation in central Chile has always been controversial, mainly due to the conflicting age ranges indicated by its macro-and microfossils. Macrofossils are generally interpreted as having been reworked from older, Early to Middle Miocene strata, whereas a Late Miocene-Pliocene age has been accepted on the basis of planktonic foraminifer index species. The results of this study, however, indicate that the macrofossils occur in situ, which necessitates a complete revision of the geochronological data. It is concluded that the evidence for an Early to Middle Miocene age is overwhelming, and that the planktonic foraminifer index species must have appeared in the SE Pacific earlier than elsewhere. These include Globoturborotalia apertura, Globorotalia puncticulata (Deshayes), Globorotalia spheriomizea (Walters), Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (Ehrenberg), and Neogloboquadrina acostaensis (Blow). An Early to Middle Miocene age for the Navidad Formation correlates well with a reinterpretation of its depositional environment as a continental shelf instead of a deepwater continental slope, global and regional paleoclimatic events, and the tectonic development of the Andes Range. RESUMEN. Evidencias de una edad miocena temprana-media de la Formación Navidad: Implicancias paleontológicas, paleoclimáticas y tectónicas. La edad de la Formación Navidad en Chile central siempre ha sido controversial, debido a los distintos rangos de edad indicados por los macro-y microfósiles. En general, se considera que los macrofósiles han sido retrabajados de estratos del Mioceno Temprano a Medio, y se aceptó una edad miocena tardía para esta unidad sobre la base de especies indicadoras de foraminíferos planctónicos. Sin embargo, los resultados de este estudio indican que los macrofósiles ocurren in situ, lo cual hace necesario una revisión completa de los datos geocronológicos. Se concluye que la evidencia por una edad miocena temprana a media es contundente, y que los foraminíferos planctónicos que indicarían una edad miocena tardía aparecieron más temprano en el SE del océano Pacífico que en otras partes. Estos foraminíferos incluyen Globoturborotalia apertura, Globorotalia puncticulata (Deshayes), Globorotalia spheriomizea (Walters), Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (Ehrenberg), y Neogloboquadrina acostaensis (Blow). Una edad miocena temprana a mediana correlaciona bien con la reinterpretación del ambiente deposicional como una plataforma continental en vez de un talud continental con agua profunda, eventos paleoclimáticos reconocidos a escala global y regional, y el desarrollo tectónico de los Andes. Medio, Tectonismo andino, Diagonal Árido. Palabras clave: Especies indicadoras de foraminíferos, Óptimo Climático del Mioceno