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To the authors' knowledge, calendar year trends in cigarette smoking initiation rates have not been examined on a population basis. National Health Interview Survey data (1970, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1987, and 1988) on age of starting to smoke fairly regularly were used to compute smoking initiation rates for males and females aged 10-24 years from 1944 through the mid-1980s. Information from 102,626 respondents was included. The authors examined trends in these rates and looked for associations with milestones in the antismoking public health campaign. Smoking initiation in 21- to 24-year-old (adult) males declined sharply beginning around 1950 when evidence regarding the health consequences of smoking was first made public. The decline in adult females began in the mid-1960s when the Surgeon General's report was released, intensifying the public health campaign. The initiation rate for adult males and females dropped below 1% by the end of the study period. Initiation rates in 15- to 20-year-old males also began to decrease in the mid-1960s, but rates for 10- to 14-year-old males did not decrease over the study period. Initiation rates for females both in the 15-20 and 10-14 year age groups actually increased, at least through the mid-1970s. These trends in smoking initiation suggest that knowing the health consequences of smoking has kept adults from starting to smoke. Such knowledge either may be lacking or may not be salient among the youngest age groups.

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Real cigarette prices in the US increased from the early 1980s to early 1990s. Holding all else equal, adolescent initiation of regular smoking should have declined during this period. Using national population-based surveys (n = 336 343) conducted in the 1990s, we present trends (early 1960s to mid-1990s) in the initiation of regular smoking among 14-17-year-old adolescents and 18-21-year-old young adults. We also present trends in consumer-price-index-adjusted cigarette price and tobacco-industry expenditures for price-subsidizing promotions. We relate price and price-subsidizing tobacco industry expenditures to trends in initiation in the two age groups, using autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA). From the model results, we conclude that price-subsidizing promotions may provide the tobacco industry with an effective way to segment the market. That is, they effectively offer lower prices to population subgroups that are more price-sensitive (e.g. young smokers not yet addicted), countering the depressing effect of general price increases on smoking. Thus, we find that the relationship of cigarette price to smoking behavior is more complex than previously described.

Background: It is not clear whether the decline in African 1992-1993, 1995-1996-1999, and reconstructed year of smoking initiation and calculated age-specific incidence of initiation from 1970 to 1992. We then compared detailed age-specific rates of initiation for two 5-year periods selected to be before and after the documented large declines in African American adolescent smoking. Results: In the time period after marked declines in AfricanAmerican adolescent smoking (1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)

Aim To compare predictors of smoking initiation in two longitudinal studies in California conducted during periods when adolescent smoking prevalence was increasing (1993-96) and decreasing (1996-99). Design, setting and participants Cohorts of 12-15-year-old never smokers were identified from the cross-sectional 1993 and 1996 California Tobacco Surveys (large population-based telephone surveys) and followed-up 3 years later (1993-96, n = 1764; 1996-99, n = 2119). Measures We compared cohort transition rates to any smoking by follow-up in risk groups defined by known predictors of smoking initiation at baseline. Besides examining predictors individually, risk groups were defined using a multivariate analysis. Findings Overall, transition to any smoking by follow-up occurred in 38.3 ± 4.0% (% ± 95% confidence interval) of never smokers in the 1993-96 cohort and 31.1 ± 2.6% in the 1996-99 cohort. For most predictors, the transition rate for adolescents with the characteristic was the same or only slightly lower in the 1996-99 cohort compared to the 1993-96 cohort, but the transition rate in those without the characteristic was generally much lower, thus increasing the power of the predictor. The multivariate analysis confirmed that compared to the 1993-96 cohort, transition occurred much less often in the 1996-99 cohort for adolescents at low rather than at medium or high risk of future smoking. Conclusions The turnaround in California adolescent smoking in the mid1990s, when smoking began to decline, appears to come primarily from adolescents already at low risk of future smoking (as defined by a variety of predictors), who transitioned to smoking at much lower rates than previously.

Objective -To estimate initiation rates among individuals aged 10-24 for the calendar years 1907-81.

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