Agriculture is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security and employment of rural households. Climate variability and change have adversely affected this sector and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change on revenue from all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household fixed effects estimator. We find that climate variability and change affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops. Temperature has a negative effect on crop and maize revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on tea. We find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty should be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.

Kenya joined the ranks of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were 'smarter' than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less 'smart'. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders' cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data-and propensity score-based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource-poor farmers and implementation

No abstract

Climate change has had a significant impact on rain-fed agricultural production in developing countries. Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable, and currently must make production decisions in a high risk and uncertain environment with regard to rainfall and temperature. This paper uses climate and household survey data to analyse farmer perceptions regarding climate change, adaptation measures taken in response to these changes, and how well these perceptions correlate with meteorological data in Kenya. We find that a significant number of farmers perceive climate change as real, and that they are particularly concerned about changes in rainfall and temperature. Changing crop varieties is predominantly used as an adaptation measure since extension messages often encourage adoption of drought-resistant varieties. Major factors influencing farmer perceptions include age of the farmer, which is often associated with more farming experience and subsequent extension service. Except in low potential zones, farmers' perceptions of climatic variability are in line with climatic data records. Better education, access to extension messages, farm size and credit facilities are necessary for farmers to decide to adapt to climate change. The paper further assesses barriers to the adoption of various adaptation strategies, and lack of finances and knowledge have been found to inhibit adaptation response within the smallholder farming sector. Findings imply that effective adaptation to threats posed by climate variability and change requires a multi-dimensional collaborative approach, with different stakeholders playing key roles in providing support services in terms of education, extension, credit and meteorological information.

No abstract

Crop diversification is a viable climate risk management strategy to increase crop production and productivity among farm households. We use a panel of farm household and meteorological data collected over ten years to analyze crop diversification trends and the impacts of climate change and variability on crop diversification in small-scale farms in Kenya. Previous studies are inconclusive on what context(s) crop diversification is beneficial to farmers and the influence of climate change and variability on the decision to diversify crop production. Using panel data models, we find small-scale farmers in regions with low rainfall and high temperatures are more likely to diversify crop production. Further findings show that farm size, inorganic fertilizer use, household incomes and access to off-farm livelihood options are predictors of crop diversification. Crop diversification is not a one-size-fits-all strategy and should be adopted in situations where it gives maximum benefits, consistent to existing land use policies and well-known benefits of a specified crop portfolio. A win-win situation will involve land sparing, a balance between specialized and diversified cropping systems and scaling up adoption of the improved technologies among vulnerable farmers in drought risk areas.

No abstract

Pastoral communities are facing mounting pressure on their livelihoods due to misconceptions about pastoralism and global trends including population growth and climate change. In this context, this article seeks to establish a correlation between pastoral land tenure systems and the sustainability of pastoralism as a production system. Using a comparative approach, we develop a taxonomy to first categorise the tenure regimes - collective and individual - of pastoralist societies of the Andean altiplano and the Kenyan savannah, and then we explore how these different regimes enable or hinder the performance of productive strategies that are key to the sustainability of pastoralism. We find that collective land tenure is positively correlated with the sustainability of pastoral production systems.