Agriculture is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security and employment of rural households. Climate variability and change have adversely affected this sector and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change on revenue from all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household fixed effects estimator. We find that climate variability and change affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops. Temperature has a negative effect on crop and maize revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on tea. We find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty should be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.

Kenya joined the ranks of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were 'smarter' than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less 'smart'. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders' cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data-and propensity score-based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource-poor farmers and implementation

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Climate change has had a significant impact on rain-fed agricultural production in developing countries. Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable, and currently must make production decisions in a high risk and uncertain environment with regard to rainfall and temperature. This paper uses climate and household survey data to analyse farmer perceptions regarding climate change, adaptation measures taken in response to these changes, and how well these perceptions correlate with meteorological data in Kenya. We find that a significant number of farmers perceive climate change as real, and that they are particularly concerned about changes in rainfall and temperature. Changing crop varieties is predominantly used as an adaptation measure since extension messages often encourage adoption of drought-resistant varieties. Major factors influencing farmer perceptions include age of the farmer, which is often associated with more farming experience and subsequent extension service. Except in low potential zones, farmers' perceptions of climatic variability are in line with climatic data records. Better education, access to extension messages, farm size and credit facilities are necessary for farmers to decide to adapt to climate change. The paper further assesses barriers to the adoption of various adaptation strategies, and lack of finances and knowledge have been found to inhibit adaptation response within the smallholder farming sector. Findings imply that effective adaptation to threats posed by climate variability and change requires a multi-dimensional collaborative approach, with different stakeholders playing key roles in providing support services in terms of education, extension, credit and meteorological information.

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