One of the main consequences of climate change in Brazil is the increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall, which in turn trigger Hydrometeorological disasters; the Brazilian continental dimension, the regional characteristics of biomes and socioeconomic inequality are conditioning factors for the impacts of extreme events in the country. This work analyzes Brazil’s socioeconomic and urban infrastructure vulnerability, combined with the regional exposure of the population, based on disasters observed and future scenarios for the occurrence of rainfall extremes. As a result, it points out that climate change impact differently on large Brazilian regions, due to population density and the poor quality of urban infrastructure services.
This study assesses the risk of exposure to heat stress conditions and their potential impact on mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazilian capital cities for warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C in the RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of exposure and the impact of heat stress conditions on mortality were measured by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index. The impact on health was estimated by applying exposure-response curves between WBGT and health outcomes in the projections. The potential impact on mortality was measured by attributable fraction of mortality due to heat stress. The results showed an increase in heat stress conditions for Brazil, especially in the Northern and Center-Western regions. The estimated curves showed an association between the WBGT and mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazil, with an upward impact trend, according to the levels of warming and heterogeneous results among the capitals.
In the scope of urban space production, Brazilian urban policy, despite pointing out in its guidelines the struggle for the right to the city, seems indifferent to the impacts of real estate speculation on ecosystems. Given the context of the climate emergency, there is an urgent need to align urban and environmental policy for planning cities adapted to climate change. This work presents, based on spatial data from the recent deforestation of the city of João Pessoa, the legal and socioenvironmental characteristics of the urban expansion of the city and how the municipal urban and environmental policy has catalyzed processes of socioenvironmental injustice. It appears that planning and management are limited to following the trends signaled by the real estate market and that pressure ecosystems, especially in the southern portion of the municipality, and also that democratic arrangements are forged to make society's role in defending ecosystems unfeasible.
Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
Estudos espaço-temporais, com apoio de geotecnologias e de análise quali e qualitativas, têm contribuído para estudos da paisagem, incluindo processos de perdas e ganhos da arborização urbana. Este trabalho explora a relação entre remoção e inserção de indivíduos arbóreos presentes na arborização viária, com uso simultâneo de diferentes ferramentas de análise. Os objetivos da pesquisa foram relacionar identificar a influência das transformações arquitetônicas sobre a distribuição espaço-temporal dos indivíduos arbóreos, nos planos horizontal e vertical. Foram utilizadas ferramentas de geoprocessamento e de interpretação visual de imagens de satélite, em 2011 e 2019; e em fichas de análise de elementos selecionados da paisagem alterada, para análise urbanística-arquitetônica, em 2011 e 2017, via Google Street View, em estudo de caso no bairro de Miramar, situado na Zona Leste de João Pessoa (PB). Como resultado, foi possível observar a redução de 16% no número de lotes arborizados, maior concentração de árvores em avenidas principais, e que, em relação às mudanças no uso do solo, as perdas ocorreram tanto em “edificações multifamiliares” quanto em “edificações térreas”, denotando que mesmo sem alteração de uso residencial para comercial, há substituição ou remoção total de indivíduos arbóreos.
Abstract:The City of São Paulo is the largest urban occupation in Brazil, covering 1,500 km 2 . Its population is approximately 12 million inhabitants, 12% of them living in subnormal agglomerates, the IBGE (Brazilian Agency for Statistics and Geography) denomination for informal settlements, mostly located in river floodplain areas or top of hills. The extreme high level of soil sealing and high slopes have a fundamental role to explain the increase the risks of mass movements or landslides, related to precipitation magnitude and duration. This article presents the construction of curves coupling landslides occurrences and precipitation based on the data analysis of different basins in the city of São Paulo, considering also the probability and duration of the rainfall event in order to establish a vulnerability index to estimate the vulnerability category of an specific area. Based on the data analysis of instantaneous radar rain records for seven extreme rainfall events where landslides occurrences records were available, it was possible to plot sigmoid curves linking the number of occurrences with the event probability in terms of return period.
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