Impacts of heat stress conditions on mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Brazil

Abstract

This study assesses the risk of exposure to heat stress conditions and their potential impact on mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazilian capital cities for warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C in the RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of exposure and the impact of heat stress conditions on mortality were measured by the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index. The impact on health was estimated by applying exposure-response curves between WBGT and health outcomes in the projections. The potential impact on mortality was measured by attributable fraction of mortality due to heat stress. The results showed an increase in heat stress conditions for Brazil, especially in the Northern and Center-Western regions. The estimated curves showed an association between the WBGT and mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Brazil, with an upward impact trend, according to the levels of warming and heterogeneous results among the capitals.

Deforestation and climate change are projected to increase heat stress risk in the Brazilian Amazon

“…Regarding the effects on human health, elevated heat stress exposure due to deforestation could be extremely dangerous to humans, including increased risk of intolerable conditions for inshade working activities 23 and intensified risk of heat-related illness 28 . Furthermore, increased heat stress exposure might increase morbidity and mortality in heat-vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions 29,30 .…”

“…These heat levels, which will be physiologically intolerable to the human body, will profoundly affect highly vulnerable regions. The heat extreme conditions induced by deforestation could have negative and significantly long-lasting effects on human health, including decreased workability 21,27,28 and increased heat-related morbimortality associated with cardiovascular disease 29,30 , psychological outcomes 20 , and acute kidney diseases 32 . In Brazil, the combined effects of deforestation and climate change are already being reported based on observational data, with the most extreme warming values reported in large deforested areas from 2003 to 2018 33 .…”

Impact of climate change on public health in Brazil

“…In addition, respiratory disease deaths may increase due to heat waves. Regarding cardiovascular diseases, the fraction of deaths attributed to heat stress, with a global warming of +4 • C, is predicted to be 40% in the Northern, 35% in the Northeastern, and 25% in Center-West capitals [16]. Heat waves have already been responsible for increased mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil between 2013 and 2015 [17].…”

Os Impactos Sociais Das Doenças Pulmonares Infecciosas: Revisão Narrativa

“…Além disso, a demanda por serviços de saúde aumenta, especialmente durante períodos de surtos (7) . As DPI's também apresentam um impacto social mais amplo, aumentando a pressão sobre os serviços de saúde, incluindo hospitais e profissionais de saúde.…”