The article describes a criteria-based approach to calculate the total risk obtained by the use of forecasts in prognostic models in order to solve tasks in production-and-economic systems; this chapter also outlines the difficulty of recording risks received by the use of prognostic functions and values in mathematical operations and by applying the set of prognostic functions and values with various risk values.
The possibility of planning risks assessment and the setting of the planning horizon are analysed with account of the time factor basing. A risk metrics approach is used, with risks estimated as a time function given in tabular form for the purposes of master production. Dependence of the integrated planning risks on the accuracy of forecasts used is proved and a time point is identified after which the risk assessment value increases sharply. The study enables to obtain the values of planning risks integral assessment in management problems using forecast data for groups of indicators and parameters involved in decisionmaking.
This paper broadly outlines the task of evaluating the risks associated with planning when tackling the issues of choice and planning in productive-and-economic systems to implement the projects resulting from the application of criteria-based approaches, as well as the task of evaluating production risks.
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