Background The decreasing effectiveness of antimicrobial agents is a growing global public health concern. Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are vulnerable to the loss of antimicrobial efficacy given their high burden of infectious disease and the cost of treating resistant organisms. Methods We analyzed data from the World Health Organization’s Antibacterial Resistance Global Surveillance Report. We investigated the importance of out-of-pocket spending and copayment requirements for public sector medications on the level of bacterial resistance among LMIC, adjusting for environmental factors purported to be predictors of resistance, such as sanitation, animal husbandry and poverty as well as other structural components of the health sector. Findings Out-of-pocket health expenditures were the only factor demonstrating a statistically significant relationship with antimicrobial resistance. A ten point increase in the percentage of health expenditures that were out-of-pocket was associated with a 3·2 percentage point increase in resistant isolates [95% CI, 1·17 to 5·15, p-value=0·002]. This relationship was driven by countries requiring copayments for medications in the public health sector. Among these countries, moving from the 20th to 80th percentile of out-of-pocket health expenditures was associated with an increase in resistant bacterial isolates from 17·76 [95%CI 12·54 to 22·97] to 36·27 percentage points [95% CI 31·16 to 41·38]. Interpretation Out-of-pocket health expenditures were strongly correlated with antimicrobial resistance among LMIC. This relationship was driven by countries that require copayments on medications in the public sector. Our findings suggest cost-sharing of antimicrobials in the public sector may drive demand to the private sector where supply-side incentives to overprescribe are likely heightened and quality assurance less standardized.

Study queStionIs a higher use of resources by physicians associated with a reduced risk of malpractice claims? MethodSUsing data on nearly all admissions to acute care hospitals in Florida during 2000-09 linked to malpractice history of the attending physician, this study investigated whether physicians in seven specialties with higher average hospital charges in a year were less likely to face an allegation of malpractice in the following year, adjusting for patient characteristics, comorbidities, and diagnosis. To provide clinical context, the study focused on obstetrics, where the choice of caesarean deliveries are suggested to be influenced by defensive medicine, and whether obstetricians with higher adjusted caesarean rates in a year had fewer alleged malpractice incidents the following year. Study anSwer and liMitationSThe data included 24 637 physicians, 154 725 physician years, and 18 352 391 hospital admissions; 4342 malpractice claims were made against physicians (2.8% per physician year). Across specialties, greater average spending by physicians was associated with reduced risk of incurring a malpractice claim. For example, among internists, the probability of experiencing an alleged malpractice incident in the following year ranged from 1.5% (95% confidence interval 1.2% to 1.7%) in the bottom spending fifth ($19 725 (£12 800; €17 400) per hospital admission) to 0.3% (0.2% to 0.5%) in the top fifth ($39 379 per hospital admission). In six of the specialties, a greater use of resources was associated with statistically significantly lower subsequent rates of alleged malpractice incidents. A principal limitation of this study is that information on illness severity was lacking. It is also uncertain whether higher spending is defensively motivated.what thiS Study addS Within specialty and after adjustment for patient characteristics, higher resource use by physicians is associated with fewer malpractice claims.

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Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future.

ImportanceThe US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Veterans Choice Program (VCP) expanded health care access to community settings outside the VA for eligible patients. Little is known about the effect of VCP on access to surgery and postoperative outcomes. Since its initiation, care coordination issues, which are often associated with adverse postoperative outcomes, have been reported. Research findings on the association of VCP and postoperative outcomes are limited to only a few select procedures and have been mixed, potentially due to bias from unmeasured confounding.ObjectiveTo investigate the association of the VCP with access to surgery and postoperative outcomes using a nonrandomized controlled regression discontinuity design (RDD) to reduce the impact of unmeasured confounders.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis was a nonrandomized RDD study of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants included veterans enrolled in the VHA who required surgery between October 1, 2014, and June 1, 2019.InterventionsThe VCP, which expanded access to VA-paid community care for eligible veterans living 40 miles or more from their closest VA hospital.Main Outcomes and MeasuresPostoperative emergency department visits, inpatient readmissions, and mortality at 30 and 90 days.ResultsA total of 615 473 unique surgical procedures among 498 427 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.0 [12.9] years; 450 366 male [90.4%]) were identified. Overall, 94 783 procedures (15.4%) were paid by the VHA, and the proportion of VHA-paid procedures varied by procedure type. Patients who underwent VA-paid procedures were more likely to be women (9209 [12.7%] vs men, 38 771 [9.1%]), White race (VA paid, 54 544 [74.4%] vs VA provided, 310 077 [73.0%]), and younger than 65 years (VA paid, 36 054 [49.1%] vs 229 411 [46.0%] VA provided), with a significantly lower comorbidity burden (mean [SD], 1.8 [2.2] vs 2.6 [2.7]). The nonrandomized RDD revealed that VCP was associated with a slight increase of 0.03 in the proportion of VA-paid surgical procedures among eligible veterans (95% CI, 0.01-0.05; P = .01). However, there was no difference in postoperative mortality, readmissions, or emergency department visits.Conclusions and RelevanceExpanded access to health care in the VHA was associated with a shift in the performance of surgical procedures in the private sector but had no measurable association with surgical outcomes. These findings may assuage concerns of worsened patient outcomes resulting from care coordination issues when care is expanded outside of a single health care system, although it remains unclear whether these additional procedures were appropriate or improved patient outcomes.

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan's elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

Background The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) expanded significantly after the Great Recession of 2008–2009, but no studies have characterized this new group of recipients. Few data sets provide details on whether an individual is a new or established recipient of SNAP. Objective We sought to identify new and existing SNAP recipients, and to examine differences in sociodemographic characteristics, health, nutritional status, and food purchasing behavior between new and existing recipients of SNAP after the recession. Methods We created a probabilistic algorithm to identify new and existing SNAP recipients using the 1999–2013 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We applied this algorithm to the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS), fielded during 2012–2013, to predict which individuals were likely to be new SNAP recipients. We then compared health and nutrition characteristics between new, existing, and never recipients of SNAP in FoodAPS. Results New adult SNAP recipients had higher socioeconomic status, better self-reported health, and greater food security relative to existing recipients, and were more likely to smoke relative to never recipients. New child SNAP recipients were less likely to eat all meals and had lower BMI relative to existing recipients. New SNAP households exhibited differences in food access and expenditures, although dietary quality was similar to that of existing SNAP households. Conclusion We developed a novel algorithm for predicting new and existing SNAP recipiency that can be applied to other data sets, and subsequently demonstrated differences in health characteristics between new and existing recipients. The expansion of SNAP since the Great Recession enrolled a population that differed from the existing SNAP population and that may benefit from different types of nutritional and health services than those traditionally offered.

IMPORTANCEHealth insurers alter the size of their networks, offering lower premiums in exchange for a more limited set of care choices. However, little is known about the association of network size with health care utilization and outcomes, particularly outside of the context of private insurance plans. OBJECTIVE To evaluate changes in health care utilization after an expansion in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VA) health care network. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study included individuals enrolled in the VA from 2015 to 2018. Considering that the health care network expansion only affected a portion of enrollees, only those who lived between 20 and 60 miles from a VA facility were included. Data analysis was conducted from September 2020 to February 2021.EXPOSURES Individuals who lived 40 or more miles away from a VA facility were automatically eligible for an expanded health care network through non-VA practitioners (VA community care); those living less than 40 miles away from a VA facility were not automatically eligible. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES A regression discontinuity analysis of individuals who becameeligible for an expanded network based on geographic residence was performed. Inpatient and outpatient utilization rates per VA enrollee during the study period, with utilization differentiated by whether services were provided by a VA or non-VA practitioner, were calculated. RESULTSThe study included more than 2.7 million unique individuals whose characteristics largely reflected the demographic characteristics of the VA system (mean [SD] age, 62 [17] years; 2 589 252 [90%] men; 282 168 [10%] Black; 2 203 352 [77%] White). Patient characteristics (age, race, and comorbidities) did not vary significantly by eligibility status. Outpatient utilization was 3.2% higher (95% CI, 1.0% to 5.3%) among those with access to an expanded network. Increased utilization was most pronounced among those with a higher VA disability rating (3.1%; 95% CI, 0.5% to 5.7%) and among younger individuals without service-connected disabilities (7.0%, 95% CI, 1.7% to 12.3%).There was no evidence of changes to inpatient utilization (1.2%; 95% CI. -2.5% to 4.9%; P = .37) for those with access to the expanded network. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this study, expanded network access was associated with increased total health care utilization among affected enrollees in the VA. Understanding how network size affects utilization is immediately informative for the VA, but it can also help to guide policies for insurance markets.