Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Abstract

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan's elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

Chronological changes in the epidemiological characteristics of upper urinary tract urolithiasis in Japan

“…1,4 Another prominent characteristic is that Japan is currently experiencing pronounced population aging, and it now has the highest proportion of older adults in the world. 5 These characteristics might affect the incidence and composition of urolithiasis.…”

Dynamic output feedback control for a walking assistance training robot to handle shifts in the center of gravity and time-varying arm of force in omniwheel

“…Lower limb rehabilitation robots have become a focal point of modern medical technology due to population aging and rates of disability are in a trend of rising year by year. [1][2][3] Lower limb rehabilitation robots can be divided into two types 4 those that exercise a patient's leg muscles without actual movement by maintaining a fixed posture, such as sitting, 5 lying down, 6 or hanging, 7 and those that are mounted on motion systems, including exoskeleton robots 8,9 and mobile robots. The first type of lower limb rehabilitation robots is more suitable for patients with severe muscle injuries but do not help to recover neurological function.…”

Substitution of Formal and Informal Home Care Service Use and Nursing Home Service Use: Health Outcomes, Decision-Making Preferences, and Implications for a Public Health Policy

“…The rapid increase in an aging population through a prolonged life expectancy combined with an increase in dependent elderly in Japan ( 1 , 2 ) has caused a shortage of labor supply (a decrease in the labor force participation rate from 60% in 2010 to 54% in 2030), a deterioration of the pension system (from one elderly vs. 2.4 working age persons in 2012 to 1.2 persons in 2060), an upsurge in health-care costs (an increase in health spending in % of GDP from 9% in 2010 to 14% in 2020, and to 19% in 2030), and a change in elderly nursing care programs/policies ( 3 ). An imminent aging society compels many governments to change their policy orientation from institutional formal health-care settings to informal home health care because of the forthcoming rising of the elderly health-care costs, and long-term care financing ( 4 – 7 ).…”