Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Abstract

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future.

Chronological changes in the epidemiological characteristics of upper urinary tract urolithiasis in Japan

“…Previous studies have shown that the incidence of urolithiasis has increased steadily since World War II in Japan with a Westernized lifestyle and dietary habits . Another prominent characteristic is that Japan is currently experiencing pronounced population aging, and it now has the highest proportion of older adults in the world . These characteristics might affect the incidence and composition of urolithiasis.…”

Utility of the luminance standard deviation to quantify magnetic resonance imaging motion artifact induced by tongue movement

“…A potential limitation of this investigation is that the subjects were dentulous and aged between 23 and 45 years. Patients with cancer requiring MR imaging are typically elders (1). However, we consider that this evaluation is effective in older adults and cancer-affected subjects as we were able to evaluate images in a dentulous patient, moving the tongue consciously to cause significant motion artifact.…”

“…According to an unprecedented super-aged Japanese society demographic, tongue cancer, salivary gland disease, and temporomandibular joint disease are expected to increase (1). Prevalence of cancer among those aged 50 years and older is expected to increase by 2040 in the Japanese population (1).…”

“…According to an unprecedented super-aged Japanese society demographic, tongue cancer, salivary gland disease, and temporomandibular joint disease are expected to increase (1). Prevalence of cancer among those aged 50 years and older is expected to increase by 2040 in the Japanese population (1). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), and positron emission tomography/CT (PET/CT) are the standard methods used to detect and diagnose lymph node metastasis and distant metastasis in malignant neoplasms (2).…”

Determinants Associated with Prolonged Hospital Stays for Patients Aged 65 Years or Older with a Vertebral Compression Fracture in a Rural Hospital in Japan

“…The rate of aging in Japan is currently the highest in the world, and the ≥ 65-year-old population is projected to account for nearly 40% of the total population by the year 2050 (Chen et al 2016). Thus, the prevalence of several diseases, including vertebral compression fracture (VCF), pneumonia, heart failure, and age-related dementia, might increase further (Tsuda 2017;Miyashita and Yamauchi 2018;Shimada et al 2018).…”