SynopsisThe Lundby cohort consists of all inhabitants in a delimited area in Sweden studied in 1947 by Essen-Möller, then by Hagnell in 1957, and by Hagnell & Öjesjöin 1975. It has been claimed that depressive disorders have increased during the sixties and seventies. In order to examine this hypothesis on a normal population (the Lundby Study), comparisons were made of the incidence figures for depression during the periods 1947–57 and 1957–72, and during the five 5-year intervals within the period.

The present study is based on the so-called 1957 Lundby cohort, a geographically defined normal Swedish population of 2612 individuals who were evaluated for mental disorders in 1957 and 1972. The annual age-standardised first incidence of depression, with or without other psychiatric symptoms, all degrees of impairment included, was found to be 4.3 per 1000 person years in men and 7.6 per 1000 person years in women. Up until 70 years of age, the cumulative probability of suffering a first episode of depression was 27% in men and 45% in women.

Low attrition rates over 50 years and reasonable diagnostic uniformity make comparisons over time justifiable.

The incidences of senile dementia of Alzheimer type (SDAT) and multi-infarction dementia (MID) were studied in a total Swedish population, the Lundby project. The study is prospective and covers a 25-year period. The incidence rates per year of contracting SDAT or MID and the probability in each 10-year age interval of contracting dementia in the elderly were calculated, as well as the cumulative risk up to a certain age. The lifetime risk of contracting SDAT was for men 25.5 % and for women 31.9%. The corresponding figures for MID were 29.8 and 25.1%.

The report presents some prospective base-tines for assessing prognosis in alcohotism of various gradations in the general population, each variable measured at the beginning (Time I) and at the end (Time 2) of a 15year longitudinal study. It shows an inverse relation between the degree of involvement with alcohol and the time course of the syndrome. Alcoholism as a dependency-syndrome is confirmed to be a valid working model for medical and epidemiological use. The findings also give evidence that future problems can be anticipated on the basis of a few general items.