Long‐Term Outcome in Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Among Males in the Lundby General Population, Sweden

Abstract

The report presents some prospective base-tines for assessing prognosis in alcohotism of various gradations in the general population, each variable measured at the beginning (Time I) and at the end (Time 2) of a 15year longitudinal study. It shows an inverse relation between the degree of involvement with alcohol and the time course of the syndrome. Alcoholism as a dependency-syndrome is confirmed to be a valid working model for medical and epidemiological use. The findings also give evidence that future problems can be anticipated on the basis of a few general items.

Predictors of 16‐Year Mortality Among Individuals Initiating Help‐Seeking for an Alcoholic Use Disorder

“…A more severe and longer duration of alcohol abuse predicts premature death (Liskow et al, 2000;Ojesjo, 1981). In Vaillant's (1996) study, men who met criteria for alcohol dependence were more likely to die prematurely than were men who met criteria for alcohol abuse.…”

“…As to mortality in untreated samples of individuals with AUDs, Ojesjo (1981) found that 26% died over a 15-year follow-up, yielding an annual mortality rate of 1.7%. Vaillant (1996) found that 28% of his inner-city adolescent sample of alcohol abusing men died by age 60, as did 18% of alcohol-abusing men in his sample of university students.…”

How important is treatment? One-year outcomes of treated and untreated alcohol-dependent individuals

“…Higher severities of alcohol and drug problems have been consistent predictors of higher problem status at follow‐up (Alterman et al . 1994; Ojesjo 1981; McLellan et al . 1986; Finney & Moos 1992).…”

The course and outcome of alcohol use disorders in men in Goa: A population- based follow-up study

“…We do not have comparable studies in Indian populations but studies in developed countries in untreated samples report remission rates of 2-3%[2425] at 1 year to 30% at 15 years. [26]…”