No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

We present the first identification of a candidate precursor for an imminent red nova. Our prediction is based on the example of the precursor to the red nova V1309 Sco, which was retrospectively found to be a contact binary with an exponentially decreasing period. We explore the use of this distinctive timing signature to identify precursors, developing the observational and analysis steps needed. We estimate that our Galaxy has roughly 1-10 observable precursors. Specifically, we lay out the observational case for KIC 9832227, which we identified as a tentative candidate two years ago (Molnar et al. 2015, AAS Meeting Abstracts 415.05). Orbital timing over the past two years has followed the tentative exponential fit. As of late 2015, the period time derivative went beyond the range found in other systems (Ṗ < |1 × 10 −8 |), a necessary criterion for a serious candidate. We estimate time of merger is the year 2022.2 ± 0.7. Double absorption line spectra confirm directly the 0.458 d light curve period is a contact binary system and yield a mass ratio m B /m A = 0.228 ± 0.003. Closer analysis of the Kepler timing data shows evidence of a component C with orbital period P C = 590 ± 8 days and m C sin i C = 0.11 M ⊙ . An alternative interpretation of the long term timing trend, light travel time delay due to orbit around a distant component D, is ruled out by the spectroscopic data for any nondegenerate star. Additional measurements are needed to test further the merging hypothesis and to utilize fully this fortuitous opportunity.

No abstract

No abstract

We present a photometric detection of the first brightness dips of the unique variable star KIC 8462852 since the end of the Kepler space mission in 2013 May. Our regular photometric surveillance started in 2015 October, and a sequence of dipping began in 2017 May continuing on through the end of 2017, when the star was no longer visible from Earth. We distinguish four main 1%-2.5% dips, named "Elsie," "Celeste," "Skara Brae," and "Angkor," which persist on timescales from several days to weeks. Our main results so far are as follows: (i) there are no apparent changes of the stellar spectrum or polarization during the dips and (ii) the multiband photometry of the dips shows differential reddening favoring non-gray extinction. Therefore, our data are inconsistent with dip models that invoke optically thick material, but rather they are in-line with predictions for an occulter consisting primarily of ordinary dust, where much of the material must be optically thin with a size scale =1 μm, and may also be consistent with models invoking variations intrinsic to the stellar photosphere. Notably, our data do not place constraints on the color of the longer-term "secular" dimming, which may be caused by independent processes, or probe different regimes of a single process.

No abstract