We present the first identification of a candidate precursor for an imminent red nova. Our prediction is based on the example of the precursor to the red nova V1309 Sco, which was retrospectively found to be a contact binary with an exponentially decreasing period. We explore the use of this distinctive timing signature to identify precursors, developing the observational and analysis steps needed. We estimate that our Galaxy has roughly 1-10 observable precursors. Specifically, we lay out the observational case for KIC 9832227, which we identified as a tentative candidate two years ago (Molnar et al. 2015, AAS Meeting Abstracts 415.05). Orbital timing over the past two years has followed the tentative exponential fit. As of late 2015, the period time derivative went beyond the range found in other systems (Ṗ < |1 × 10 −8 |), a necessary criterion for a serious candidate. We estimate time of merger is the year 2022.2 ± 0.7. Double absorption line spectra confirm directly the 0.458 d light curve period is a contact binary system and yield a mass ratio m B /m A = 0.228 ± 0.003. Closer analysis of the Kepler timing data shows evidence of a component C with orbital period P C = 590 ± 8 days and m C sin i C = 0.11 M ⊙ . An alternative interpretation of the long term timing trend, light travel time delay due to orbit around a distant component D, is ruled out by the spectroscopic data for any nondegenerate star. Additional measurements are needed to test further the merging hypothesis and to utilize fully this fortuitous opportunity.

Contact binary systems (also known as W UMa systems) consist of a pair of hydrogen-burning dwarf stars orbiting each other so closely that they share a common envelope. Although they are relatively common, there is as yet no established consensus on the principle evolutionary questions surrounding them: how do they form, how do they evolve over time, what do they become?One observational clue to their evolutionary history has been the abrupt termination of the orbital period distribution around 5.2 hours. We have undertaken an observational study of this by 1) discovery of fast W UMa systems in our Calvin-Rehoboth Observatory data archive, 2) follow-up with the Calvin-Rehoboth Observatory of candidate fast systems from the Catalina Sky Survey, and 3) follow-up of other reports of potentially fast systems in other recently published surveys. We find the follow-up to have been particularly important as many surveys taken for other purposes lead to ambiguous or incorrect claims for periods less than five hours.Our results to date may be characterized as showing two distinct components: the steeply decaying tail associated with the previously known cutoff along with a low-amplitude, but apparently uniform distribution that extends down to 3.6 hours. The confirmation at greater sensitivity of the abruptness of the cutoff seems to imply that the dominant mechanism for system formation (or the mechanism that determines system lifetime) does have a strong period dependence. At the same time, there appears to be a second mechanism at work as well which leads to the formation of the ultrafast component of the histogram.

With recent developments in imaging and computer technology the amount of available astronomical data has increased dramatically. Although most of these data sets are not dedicated to the study of variable stars much of it can, with the application of proper software tools, be recycled for the discovery of new variable stars. Fits Viewer and Data Retrieval System is a new software package that takes advantage of modern computer advances to search astronomical data for new variable stars. More than 200 new variable stars have been found in a data set taken with the Calvin College Rehoboth Robotic telescope using FVDRS. One particularly interesting example is a very fast subdwarf B with a 95 minute orbital period, the fastest currently known of the HW Vir type.