No abstract

Since January 2012, the Pacific Region has experienced 28 new documented outbreaks and circulation of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus. These mosquito-borne disease epidemics seem to become more frequent and diverse, and it is likely that this is only the early stages of a wave that will continue for several years. Improved surveillance and response measures are needed to mitigate the already heavy burden on island health systems and limit further spread to other parts of the world.

BackgroundDengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.Methodology/Principal FindingsEpidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively.Conclusions/SignificanceThe epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.

An epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) illness that occurred in July 2007 on Yap Island in the Federated States of Micronesia prompted entomological studies to identify both the primary vector(s) involved in transmission and the ecological parameters contributing to the outbreak. Larval and pupal surveys were performed to identify the major containers serving as oviposition habitat for the likely vector(s). Adult mosquitoes were also collected by backpack aspiration, light trap, and gravid traps at select sites around the capital city. The predominant species found on the island was Aedes (Stegomyia) hensilli. No virus isolates were obtained from the adult field material collected, nor did any of the immature mosquitoes that were allowed to emerge to adulthood contain viable virus or nucleic acid. Therefore, laboratory studies of the probable vector, Ae. hensilli, were undertaken to determine the likelihood of this species serving as a vector for Zika virus and other arboviruses. Infection rates of up to 86%, 62%, and 20% and dissemination rates of 23%, 80%, and 17% for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue-2 viruses respectively, were found supporting the possibility that this species served as a vector during the Zika outbreak and that it could play a role in transmitting other medically important arboviruses.

Background Aedes aegypti is a cosmopolite mosquito, vector of arboviruses. The worldwide studies of its insecticide resistance have demonstrated a strong loss of susceptibility to pyrethroids, the major class of insecticide used for vector control. French overseas territories such as French Guiana (South America), Guadeloupe islands (Lesser Antilles) as well as New Caledonia (Pacific Ocean), have encountered such resistance.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe initiated a research program on the pyrethroid resistance in French Guiana, Guadeloupe and New Caledonia. Aedes aegypti populations were tested for their deltamethrin resistance level then screened by an improved microarray developed to specifically study metabolic resistance mechanisms. Cytochrome P450 genes were implicated in conferring resistance. CYP6BB2, CYP6M11, CYP6N12, CYP9J9, CYP9J10 and CCE3 genes were upregulated in the resistant populations and were common to other populations at a regional scale. The implication of these genes in resistance phenomenon is therefore strongly suggested. Other genes from detoxification pathways were also differentially regulated. Screening for target site mutations on the voltage-gated sodium channel gene demonstrated the presence of I1016 and C1534.Conclusion /significanceThis study highlighted the presence of a common set of differentially up-regulated detoxifying genes, mainly cytochrome P450 genes in all three populations. GUA and GUY populations shared a higher number of those genes compared to CAL. Two kdr mutations well known to be associated to pyrethroid resistance were also detected in those two populations but not in CAL. Different selective pressures and genetic backgrounds can explain such differences. These results are also compared with those obtained from other parts of the world and are discussed in the context of integrative research on vector competence.