106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by the Department of Energy. Further, this report could be "influential scientific information" as that term is defined in the Office of Management and Budget's Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (Bulletin). This report has been peer reviewed pursuant to section II of the Bulletin. AvailabilityThis report, as well as supporting documentation, data, and analysis tools, can be found on the Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework at bioenergykdf.net. Go to https://bioenergykdf.net/billionton2016/reportinfo for the latest report information and metadata.

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The 2011 US Billion-Ton Update 1 estimates that there are enough agricultural and forest resources to sustainably provide enough biomass to displace approximately 30% of the country's current petroleum consumption. A portion of these resources are inaccessible at current cost targets with conventional feedstock supply systems because of their remoteness or low yields. Reliable analyses and projections of US biofuels production depend on assumptions about the supply system and biorefi nery capacity, which, in turn, depend on economics, feedstock logistics, and sustainability. A cross-functional team has examined optimal combinations of advances in feedstock supply systems and biorefi nery capacities with rigorous design information, improved crop yield and agronomic practices, and improved estimates of sustainable biomass availability. Biochemical-conversion-to-ethanol is analyzed for conventional bale-based system and advanced uniform-format feedstock supply system designs. The latter involves 'pre-processing' biomass into a higher-density, aerobically stable, easily transportable format that can supply large-scale biorefi neries. Feedstock supply costs, logistics and processing costs are analyzed and compared, taking into account environmental sustainability metrics.

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The 2011 US Billion-Ton Update estimates that by 2030 there will be enough agricultural and forest resources to sustainably provide at least one billion dry tons of biomass annually, enough to displace approximately 30% of the country's current petroleum consumption. A portion of these resources are inaccessible at current cost targets with conventional feedstock supply systems because of their remoteness or low yields. Reliable analyses and projections of US biofuels production depend on assumptions about the supply system and biorefi nery capacity, which, in turn, depend upon economic value, feedstock logistics, and sustainability. A cross-functional team has examined combinations of advances in feedstock supply systems and biorefi nery capacities with rigorous design information, improved crop yield and agronomic practices, and improved estimates of sustainable Modeling and Analysis: Thermochemical conversion and refinery sizing Th e previous study did not consider woody biomass supply systems, account for variability in biomass ash content throughout the supply chain, or look at biorefi nery scale impacts for thermochemical conversion processes.In this paper, we analyze the infl uences of biorefi nery size, biomass supply system designs, and feedstock specifications on process economics and environmental sustainability metrics for southeastern (SE) US woody feedstocks converted into ethanol through a thermochemical process. Th e woody feedstocks include logging residues, which are low cost at the forest landing (i.e. roadside aft er harvest, chipping, and loading on a truck), but because of ash, may not be the least expensive for the conversion process. Because of this diff erence, this report also analyzes the impact of costs incurred between landing and the throat of the conversion system ('reactor throat'), including the costs of feedstock pre-processing. Th e analyses compared options of performing pre-processing operations at the landing or depot, such as ash removal, or letting the conversion process handle the upgrading of the material. Th e analyses support upgrading the material near the point of extraction rather than allowing the conversion facilities to handle the upgrades. Illustrative casesTh e SE USA is projected to be highly productive for the emerging biorefi nery industry. 4 One potential challenge with developing supply chains in the SE (Fig. 1) is that the resource base is made up of various types of herbaceous and woody biomass resources. Table 1 shows the primary biomass categories and potentially available quantities biomass availability. A previous report on biochemical refi nery capacity noted that under advanced feedstock logistic supply systems that include depots and pre-processing operations there are cost advantages that support larger biorefi neries up to 10 000 DMT/day facilities compared to the smaller 2000 DMT/day facilities. This report focuses on analyzing conventional versus advanced depot biomass supply systems for a thermochemical conversion and refi nery sizi...

Several crops have recently been identified as potential dedicated bioenergy feedstocks for the production of power, fuels, and bioproducts. Despite being identified as early as the 1980s, no systematic work has been undertaken to characterize the spatial distribution of their long-term production potentials in the United states. Such information is a starting point for planners and economic modelers, and there is a need for this spatial information to be developed in a consistent manner for a variety of crops, so that their production potentials can be intercompared to support crop selection decisions. As part of the Sun Grant Regional Feedstock Partnership (RFP), an approach to mapping these potential biomass resources was developed to take advantage of the informational synergy realized when bringing together coordinated field trials, close interaction with expert agronomists, and spatial modeling into a single, collaborative effort. A modeling and mapping system called PRISM-ELM was designed to answer a basic question: How do climate and soil characteristics affect the spatial distribution and long-term production patterns of a given crop? This empirical/mechanistic/biogeographical hybrid model employs a limiting factor approach, where productivity is determined by the most limiting of the factors addressed in submodels that simulate water balance, winter low-temperature response, summer high-temperature response, and soil pH, salinity, and drainage. Yield maps are developed through linear regressions relating soil and climate attributes to reported yield data. The model was parameterized and validated using grain yield data for winter wheat and maize, which served as benchmarks for parameterizing the model for upland and lowland switchgrass, CRP grasses, Miscanthus, biomass sorghum, energycane, willow, and poplar. The resulting maps served as potential production inputs to analyses comparing the viability of biomass crops under various economic scenarios. The modeling and parameterization framework can be expanded to include other biomass crops.

a b s t r a c t This paper summarizes the results of an update to a resource assessment, published in 2005, commonly referred to as the Billion-Ton Study (BTS). The updated results are consistent with the 2005 BTS in terms of overall magnitude. The 2005 BTS projected between 860 and 1240 Tg of biomass available in the 2050 timeframe, while the Billion-Ton Update (BT2), for a price of 66 $ Mg À1 , projected between 994 and 1483 Tg in 2030. For the BT2, forest residue biomasspotential was determined to be less owing to tighter restrictions on forest residue supply including restrictions due to limited projected increase in traditional harvest for pulpwood and sawlogs. Crop residue potential was also determined to be less because of the consideration of soil carbon and not allowing residue removal from conventionally tilled corn acres.Energy crop potential was estimated to be much greater largely because of land availability and modeling of competition among various competing uses of the land. Generally, the scenario assumptions in the updated assessment are much more plausible to show a "billionton" resource, which would be sufficient to displace 30% or more of the country's present petroleum consumption and provide more than enough biomass to meet the 2022 requirements of the Renewable Fuel Standard.