We propose a theoretical framework for the study of spreading processes in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to different recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze classical epidemic models within this framework and obtain an excellent agreement with extensive Monte Carlo simulations. This agreement allows us to derive analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold and to face the challenge of characterizing a real multiplex metapopulation, the city of Medellín in Colombia, where different recurrent mobility patterns are observed depending on the socioeconomic class of the agents. Our framework allows us to unveil the geographical location of those patches that trigger the epidemic state at the critical point. A careful exploration reveals that social mixing between classes and mobility crucially determines these critical patches and, more importantly, it can produce abrupt changes of the critical properties of the epidemic onset.
We analyse the urban mobility in the cities of Medellín and Manizales (Colombia). Each city is represented by six mobility networks, each one encoding the origin-destination trips performed by a subset of the population corresponding to a particular socio-economic status. The nodes of each network are the different urban locations whereas links account for the existence of a trip between two different areas of the city. We study the main structural properties of these mobility networks by focusing on their spatio-temporal patterns. Our goal is to relate these patterns with the partition into six socio-economic compartments of these two societies. Our results show that spatial and temporal patterns vary across these socio-economic groups. In particular, the two datasets show that as wealth increases the early-morning activity is delayed, the midday peak becomes smoother and the spatial distribution of trips becomes more localized.
The spread of social phenomena such as behaviors, ideas or products is an ubiquitous but remarkably complex phenomenon. A successful avenue to study the spread of social phenomena relies on epidemic models by establishing analogies between the transmission of social phenomena and infectious diseases. Such models typically assume simple social interactions restricted to pairs of individuals; effects of the context are often neglected. Here we show that local synergistic effects associated with acquaintances of pairs of individuals can have striking consequences on the spread of social phenomena at large scales. The most interesting predictions are found for a scenario in which the contagion ability of a spreader decreases with the number of ignorant individuals surrounding the target ignorant. This mechanism mimics ubiquitous situations in which the willingness of individuals to adopt a new product depends not only on the intrinsic value of the product but also on whether his acquaintances will adopt this product or not. In these situations, we show that the typically smooth (second order) transitions towards large social contagion become explosive (first order). The proposed synergistic mechanisms therefore explain why ideas, rumours or products can suddenly and sometimes unexpectedly catch on.
In this work we analyze the architecture of real urban mobility networks from the multiplex perspective. In particular, based on empirical data about the mobility patterns in the cities of Bogotá and Medellín, each city is represented by six multiplex networks, each one representing the origin-destination trips performed by a subset of the population corresponding to a particular socioeconomic status. The nodes of each multiplex are the different urban locations whereas links represent the existence of a trip from one node (origin) to another (destination). On the other hand, the different layers of each multiplex correspond to the different existing transportation modes. By exploiting the characterization of multiplex transportation networks combining different transportation modes, we aim at characterizing the mobility patterns of each subset of the population. Our results show that the socioeconomic characteristics of the population have an extraordinary impact in the layer organization of these multiplex systems.
0000−0002−7071−379X] , Laura Lotero 2[0000−0002−6537−3276] , Alessio Cardillo 3,4,5[0000−0003−4811−9978] , Hugo Barbosa 1[0000−0002−3927−969X] , and Ronaldo Menezes 1[0000−0002−6479−6429]Abstract. Public stakeholders implement several policies and regulations to tackle gender gaps, fostering the change in the cultural constructs associated with gender. One way to quantify if such changes elicit gender equality is by studying mobility. In this work, we study the daily mobility patterns of women and men occurring in Medellín (Colombia) in two years: 2005 and 2017. Specifically, we focus on the spatiotemporal differences in the travels and find that purpose of travel and occupation characterise each gender differently. We show that women tend to make shorter trips, corroborating Ravenstein's Laws of Migration. Our results indicate that urban mobility in Colombia seems to behave in agreement with the "archetypal" case studied by Ravenstein.
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