The genetic variability and population structure of introduced species in their native range are potentially important determinants of their invasion success, yet data on native populations are often poorly represented in relevant studies. Consequently, to determine the contribution of genetic structuring in the native range of topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva to their high invasion success in Europe, we used a dataset comprising of 19 native and 11 nonnative populations. A total of 666 samples were analysed at 9 polymorphic microsatellite loci and sequenced for 597 bp of mitochondrial DNA. The analysis revealed three distinct lineages in the native range, of which two haplogroups were prevalent in China (100%), with a general split around the Qinling Mountains. Dating of both haplogroups closely matched past geological events. More recently, its distribution has been influenced by fish movements in aquaculture, resulting in gene flow between previously separated populations in Northern and Southern China. Their phylogeography in Europe indicate as few as two introductions events and two dispersal routes. Microsatellite data revealed native populations had higher genetic diversity than those in the invasive range, a contrast to previous studies on P. parva. This study confirms the importance of extensive sampling in both the native and non-native range of invasive species in evaluating the influence of genetic variability on invasion success. Keywords Pseudorabora parva Á Invasive species Á Non-native Á Invasion genetics Á Biological invasion Á Biogeography Emilie A. Hardouin and Demetra Andreou have contributed equally.
Predicting regions at risk from introductions of non-native species and the subsequent invasions is a fundamental aspect of horizon scanning activities that enable the development of more effective preventative actions and planning of management measures. The Asian cyprinid fish topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva has proved highly invasive across Europe since its introduction in the 1960s. In addition to direct negative impacts on native fish populations, P. parva has potential for further damage through transmission of an emergent infectious disease, known to cause mortality in other species. To quantify its invasion risk, in regions where it has yet to be introduced, we trained 900 ecological niche models and constructed an Ensemble Model predicting suitability, then integrated a proxy for introduction likelihood. This revealed high potential for P. parva to invade regions well beyond its current invasive range. These included areas in all modelled continents, with several hotspots of climatic suitability and risk of introduction. We believe that these methods are easily adapted for a variety of other invasive species and that such risk maps could be used by policy-makers and managers in hotspots to formulate increased surveillance and early-warning systems that aim to prevent introductions and subsequent invasions.
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