Although the majority of CDI cases were associated with exposure to a HCF, 40% of incident CDI began in the community. Populations with HCF- and community-associated CDI demonstrated significantly different age distributions. The wide variation of rates among HCFs requires explanation. The high percentage of incident cases in the community warrants increased study.

Objective To analyse the association between survival from critical illness and suicide or self-harm after hospital discharge. Design Population based cohort study using linked and validated provincial databases. Setting Ontario, Canada between January 2009 and December 2017 (inclusive). Participants Consecutive adult intensive care unit (ICU) survivors (≥18 years) were included. Linked administrative databases were used to compare ICU hospital survivors with hospital survivors who never required ICU admission (non-ICU hospital survivors). Patients were categorised based on their index hospital admission (ICU or non-ICU) during the study period. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was the composite of death by suicide (as noted in provincial death records) and deliberate self-harm events after discharge. Each outcome was also assessed independently. Incidence of suicide was evaluated while accounting for competing risk of death from other causes. Analyses were conducted by using overlap propensity score weighted, cause specific Cox proportional hazard models. Results 423 060 consecutive ICU survivors (mean age 61.7 years, 39% women) were identified. During the study period, the crude incidence (per 100 000 person years) of suicide, self-harm, and the composite of suicide or self-harm among ICU survivors was 41.4, 327.9, and 361.0, respectively, compared with 16.8, 177.3, and 191.6 in non-ICU hospital survivors. Analysis using weighted models showed that ICU survivors ( v non-ICU hospital survivors) had a higher risk of suicide (adjusted hazards ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.33) and self-harm (1.15, 1.12 to 1.19). Among ICU survivors, several factors were associated with suicide or self-harm: previous depression or anxiety (5.69, 5.38 to 6.02), previous post-traumatic stress disorder (1.87, 1.64 to 2.13), invasive mechanical ventilation (1.45, 1.38 to 1.54), and renal replacement therapy (1.35, 1.17 to 1.56). Conclusions Survivors of critical illness have increased risk of suicide and self-harm, and these outcomes were associated with pre-existing psychiatric illness and receipt of invasive life support. Knowledge of these prognostic factors might allow for earlier intervention to potentially reduce this important public health problem.

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BackgroundTo design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.Methods and FindingsWe compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.ConclusionsTraditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes.

We evaluated syndromic indicators of influenza disease activity developed using emergency department (ED) data - total ED visits attributed to influenza-like illness (ILI) ('ED ILI volume') and percentage of visits attributed to ILI ('ED ILI percent') - and Google flu trends (GFT) data (ILI cases/100 000 physician visits). Congruity and correlation among these indicators and between these indicators and weekly count of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Manitoba was assessed graphically using linear regression models. Both ED and GFT data performed well as syndromic indicators of influenza activity, and were highly correlated with each other in real time. The strongest correlations between virological data and ED ILI volume and ED ILI percent, respectively, were 0·77 and 0·71. The strongest correlation of GFT was 0·74. Seasonal influenza activity may be effectively monitored using ED and GFT data.

Information on ED visits to Winnipeg hospitals was obtained from the database of the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period from December 2008 to June 2010. EDIS is a real-time ED monitoring system implemented across Winnipeg hospitals that captures information on every ED visit, including patient demographics and 'chief complaints.' We obtained aggregated daily data on the number of ED visits attributed to ILI and the total number of visits (for any reason) to all EDs included in EDIS. A visit was attributed to ILI if the patient's chief complaint was listed as weakness, shortness of breath, cough, headache, fever, sore throat, upper respiratory tract infection, or respiratory arrest. This definition likely overestimates the actual number of ILI visits, as none of these complaints are specific to the ILI syndrome. However, this definition has been used consistently throughout the study period, so time trends may still reflect changes over time in ED use due to ILI. Using ED data, we defined two syndromic indicators: 1) weekly count of all ED visits triaged as ILI (ED ILI volume), and 2) percentage of all ED visits that were triaged as an ILI (ED ILI percent).

The present study demonstrated a large number of infections associated with non-O157 VTEC in Manitoba. Most non-O157 cases appear to result from sporadic infections, and these occur typically in rural areas. Continued enhanced surveillance is necessary to understand the temporal patterns of non-O157 VTEC and the underlying epidemiological factors driving these patterns.

ObjectivesWe describe the characteristics of injecting drug users (IDU) in Pakistan in 2006 and 2011, and assess the heterogeneity of IDU characteristics across different cities and years as well as factors associated with HIV infection.MethodsCross-sectional, integrated behavioural-biological surveys of IDU were conducted in 10 cities across Pakistan in 2006 and 2011. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to describe the differences in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours between cities and over time.ResultsLarge increases in HIV prevalence among injection drug users in Pakistan were observed, with overall HIV prevalence increasing from 16.2% in 2006 to 31.0% in 2011; an increase in HIV prevalence was also seen in all geographic areas except one. There was an increase in risk behaviours between 2006 and 2011, anecdotally related to a reduction in the availability of services for IDU. In 2011, larger proportions of IDU reported injecting several times a day and using professional injectors, and fewer reported always using clean syringes. An increase in the proportion living on the street was also observed and this was associated with HIV infection. Cities differ in terms of HIV prevalence, risk profiles, and healthcare seeking behaviours.ConclusionsThere is a high prevalence of HIV among injection drug users in Pakistan and considerable potential for further transmission through risk behaviours. HIV prevention programs may be improved through geographic targeting of services within a city and for involving groups that interact with IDU (such as pharmacy staff and professional injectors) in harm reduction initiatives.