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We present a general theory for analyzing catch at age data for a fishery. This theory seems to be the first to address itself properly to the stochastic nature of the errors in the observed catch at age data. The model developed is very flexible and accommodates itself easily to the inclusion of extra information such as fishing effort data or information about errors in the aging procedure. An example is given to illustrate the use of the model.Key words: cohort analysis, virtual population analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, aging errors

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains with decreased susceptibility to cephalosporins and azithromycin (AZM) resistance (AZM(r)) represents a public health threat of untreatable gonorrhea infections. Genomic epidemiology through whole-genome sequencing was used to describe the emergence, dissemination, and spread of AZM(r) strains. The genomes of 213 AZM(r) and 23 AZM-susceptible N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected in Canada from 1989 to 2014 were sequenced. Core single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) phylogenomic analysis resolved 246 isolates into 13 lineages. High-level AZM(r) (MICs ≥ 256 μg/ml) was found in 5 phylogenetically diverse isolates, all of which possessed the A2059G mutation (Escherichia coli numbering) in all four 23S rRNA alleles. One isolate with high-level AZM(r) collected in 2009 concurrently had decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone (MIC = 0.125 μg/ml). An increase in the number of 23S rRNA alleles with the C2611T mutations (E. coli numbering) conferred low to moderate levels of AZM(r) (MICs = 2 to 4 and 8 to 32 μg/ml, respectively). Low-level AZM(r) was also associated with mtrR promoter mutations, including the -35A deletion and the presence of Neisseria meningitidis-like sequences. Geographic and temporal phylogenetic clustering indicates that emergent AZM(r) strains arise independently and can then rapidly expand clonally in a region through local sexual networks.

Background: Prevalence estimates contribute to our understanding of the magnitude of a particular health condition and in planning appropriate public health interventions.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a global public health issue, with an estimated 36.9 million people living with HIV in 2017. HIV has been reportable in Canada since 1985 and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) continues to monitor trends in new HIV diagnoses. Objective: The objective of this surveillance report is to provide an overview of the epidemiology of all reported diagnoses of HIV in Canada since 1985 with a focus on 2018 overall, and by geographic location, age group, sex, and exposure category. Methods: PHAC monitors HIV through the national HIV/AIDS Surveillance System, a passive, case-based system that collates nonnominal data that is voluntarily submitted by all Canadian provinces and territories. Descriptive epidemiological analyses were conducted on national data and those relating to specific populations provided by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and the Canadian Perinatal HIV Surveillance Program. Results: In 2018, a total of 2,561 HIV diagnoses were reported in Canada, an increase of 8.2% compared with 2017. The national diagnosis rate increased to 6.9 per 100,000 population in 2018 from 6.5 per 100,000 population in 2017. Saskatchewan reported the highest provincial diagnosis rate at 14.9 per 100,000 population. The 30-39 year age group continued to have the highest HIV diagnosis rate at 15.4 per 100,000 population. Overall, the diagnosis rate for males continued to be higher than that of females (9.8 versus 4.0 per 100,000 population, respectively); however, females experienced a larger increase in reported cases and diagnosis rate. The gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) exposure category continued to represent the highest proportion of all reported adult cases (41.4%), though the proportion has decreased over time. Five perinatal HIV transmissions were documented, three where related to the mother not receiving perinatal antiretroviral therapy prophylaxis. Conclusion: The number and rate of reported HIV cases in Canada increased in 2018, gbMSM continued to account for the largest exposure category and the number and rate of reported HIV cases among women increased. PHAC will continue to work with its national partners to refine the collection, analysis and publication of national data to better understand the burden of HIV in Canada.

The HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) prevention and assessment strategy, developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in partnership with HIVResNet, includes monitoring of HIVDR early warning indicators, surveys to assess acquired and transmitted HIVDR, and development of an accredited HIVDR genotyping laboratory network to support survey implementation in resource-limited settings. As of June 2011, 52 countries had implemented at least 1 element of the strategy, and 27 laboratories had been accredited. As access to antiretrovirals expands under the WHO/Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS Treatment 2.0 initiative, it is essential to strengthen HIVDR surveillance efforts in the face of increasing concern about HIVDR emergence and transmission.

BackgroundGlobal HIV-1 genetic diversity and evolution form a major challenge to treatment and prevention efforts. An increasing number of distinct HIV-1 recombinants have been identifiedworldwide, but their contribution to the global epidemic is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinant forms during 1990-2015. MethodsWe assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature review and a global survey. We searched PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2015. Unpublished original HIV-1 subtyping data was collected through a survey among experts in the field who were members of the WHO-UNAIDS Network for HIV Isolation and Characterisation. We included prevalence studies with HIV-1 subtyping data collected during 1990-2015. Countries were grouped into 14 regions and analyses conducted for four time periods (1990-99, 2000-04, 2005-09 and 2010-15). The distribution of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in individual countries was weighted according to the UNAIDS estimates of the number of people living with HIV in each country to generate regional and global estimates of numbers and proportions of HIV-1 recombinants in each time period. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42017067164.